Great night for N.J. Democrats, who gain five seats in the legislature

Typically, when one party controls both the White House and the Governor’s Mansion, that’s a bad sign for that party’s chances in New Jersey legislative midterms. But Democrats broke that curse this year, winning every top district and flipping a net five legislative seats across the state.

It’s a huge win for the party, and a dispiriting loss for Republicans, who made unexpected gains in 2021 and went into this year with high hopes for more. Beginning next session, the Senate will have 25 Democrats and 15 Republicans – the same as the current breakdown – while the Assembly will have 51 Democrats and 29 Republicans.

Two of the biggest Democratic wins came in adjacent South Jersey districts. In the 3rd district, former Assemblyman John Burzichelli (D-Paulsboro) unseated incumbent State Sen. Ed Durr (R-Logan), avenging Durr’s shocking 2021 defeat of Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-West Deptford). Burzichelli leads Durr 53%-47%, and Democrats appear to have narrowly flipped the district’s two Assembly seats as well.

And in the Democratic-held 4th district, which was significantly reshaped on the state’s new legislative map into a much more competitive district, Assemblyman Paul Moriarty (D-Washington) won the Senate seat 53%-44% against former Washington Township Councilman Chris Del Borrello; Moriarty’s Assembly running mates prevailed too. Democrats seemingly spent quite a bit of money boosting third-party candidate Giuseppe Costanzo, but the 3% of the vote Costanzo got ended up not mattering.

Democrats also scored a huge victory in the 11th district in Monmouth County, where State Sen. Vin Gopal (D-Long Branch) crushed GOP challenger Steve Dnistrian 60%-39%, a larger margin than even the most optimistic Democrat would have predicted. Gopal’s running mates, Margie Donlon and Luanne Peterpaul, defeated two Republican assemblywomen.

The final Democratic flip is the weirdest of all. The Lakewood-based 30th district is usually solidly Republican, but Orthodox Jewish leaders in Lakewood decided this year that they wanted to elect a member of the majority Democratic caucus – and they did so handily, with Rabbi Avi Schnall defeating Assemblyman Ned Thomson (R-Wall) 31%-20%.

(Republicans technically got one legislative seat flip of their own, but it comes with a major asterisk. Old Bridge Mayor Owen Henry won a Senate seat in the heavily Republican 12th district, which is currently held by party-switching Democratic State Sen. Sam Thompson.)

In three other competitive districts – the 14th and 16th districts in Central Jersey and the 38th district in Bergen County – Democrats held on by clear margins.

State Sens. Linda Greenstein (D-Plainsboro), Andrew Zwicker (D-South Brunswick), and Joe Lagana (D-Paramus) all won by double digits; two newcomers, Tennille McCoy and Mitchelle Drulis, held two open seats for Democrats in the 14th and 16th districts.

Republicans did manage some important wins of their own, holding onto the 2nd district in Atlantic County and the 8th district in Burlington County against an onslaught of spending by South Jersey Democrats. State Sen. Vince Polistina (R-Egg Harbor Township) will get another four years in the Senate, while former Burlington County Freeholder Latham Tiver (R-Southampton) – a top official in the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 825, a heavy spender in legislative elections – has won his first Senate term.

Seasoned Republican incumbents also won in the potentially competitive 21st, 25th, and 39th districts, though some by smaller margins than expected.

The place where Republicans really made gains, though, was at the county level. Republicans flipped a whopping five countywide offices in Cumberland County, and Democrats lost two of their three remaining offices in Atlantic County, two rough blows for county Democratic organizations that have had a bad few years.

Gloucester County Democrats, on the other hand, retained control of county government after a second consecutive Republican attempt to flip it. Democrats also held on in Burlington and Somerset Counties; races in Passaic County remain too close to call for now.

Overall, there are a lot of winners on the Democratic side tonight. At the top of the list have to be Senate President Nick Scutari (D-Linden) and Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin (D-Woodbridge), who were heavily involved in legislative races this year, particularly in the 11th, 16th, and 38th districts – all of which Democrats won convincingly.

South Jersey Democratic power broker George Norcross, far from being retired, re-established his hold over the core of his South Jersey domain and will get a larger legislative footprint this year. He orchestrated Democratic campaigns in South Jersey, while Middlesex Democratic Chair Kevin McCabe and State Democratic Chair LeRoy Jones were key to Democratic victories elsewhere in the state.

And Gov. Phil Murphy can also feel good about tonight’s results. He’s in his final two years as governor, but now he can pitch himself – and his wife, potential U.S. Senate candidate Tammy Murphy – as the state leader who brought about a larger Democratic legislative majority against the odds. (That bucks a substantial historical trend; most two-term governors lose seats in their second midterms.)

On the GOP side, there will likely be a lot of soul-searching about what went wrong this year. Republicans had honed in on a few issues that they believed would resonate in Democratic-leaning districts, including offshore wind, parental involvement in education, and perennially high taxes, and polling seemed to show that they were onto something.

But ultimately, their candidates were not always top-tier – many of the best hypothetical Republican recruits turned down campaigns – and their fundraising couldn’t keep up with Democrats in almost any competitive district. The financial disparity allowed Democrats to simply drown out any Republican attacks with their own messaging on abortion, property tax relief, and other Democratic-friendly issues.

Then again, when all is said and done, Republicans have approximately the same size legislative delegation as they did before the 2021 elections, and they have a significantly larger footprint in South Jersey’s local offices. This election may feel like a disaster for the GOP, but in some ways it’s more just a turning back of the clock.

As for the legislature itself: Democrats have spent the last two years nervously looking over their shoulders and primarily focusing on broadly popular legislation that they thought would appeal to swing-district voters. With a larger, younger Democratic caucus now headed to Trenton, we’ll soon see whether that changes.