A primer on midterm elections for two-term governors

Historically, the party of a second-term governor loses seats in their sixth year in office, so history is not on Gov. Phil Murphy’s side.

Republicans lost four Assembly seats in Chris Christie’s 2015 mid-term, three Assembly seats in Christine Todd Whitman’s 1999 mid-term, and one Senate seat and eight Assembly seats in Tom Kean’s 1987 mid-term.  Democrats lost ten Assembly seats in Brendan Byrne’s 1979 mid-term.

The last time a sitting two-term governor lost control of the legislature during their second mid-term election was in 1967 when Democrat Richard J. Hughes was governor.  The U.S. Supreme Court’s One-Man, One-Vote decision, followed by the 1966 New Jersey Constitutional Convention, led to the expansion of both houses: the Senate from 29 to 40 and the Assembly from 60 to 80.

That year, the Senate went from a 19-10 Democratic majority to a 31-9 control for the Republicans.  The Assembly went from 41 Democrats and 19 Republicans to a 58-22 GOP majority.

Democrats presently have a 25-15 majority in the Senate – one of them is held by party-switcher Sam Thompson (D-Old Bridge), who is not seeking re-election in a solidly Republican district, with 46-34 control in the Assembly.