At this time last year, the 2024 election was not shaping up to be a hugely dramatic cycle in New Jersey politics. Every congressional incumbent in the state was gearing up to run for re-election, and with only one highly competitive House seat on the state’s congressional map, most New Jersey voters didn’t have a lot of excitement to look forward to.
Then Senator Bob Menendez was indicted on bombshell corruption charges, and everything changed. The race for Menendez’s seat suddenly became one of the most prominent congressional contests anywhere in the country, and the indictment had ripple effects that directly reshaped several House races and changed the tenor of politics across the state.
In March, things got even more hectic when Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) – now the leading contender for the Senate – succeeded in his lawsuit to bring down the Democratic county line, the controversial ballot design system that lets county political parties group their endorsed candidates together. All Democratic candidates (and Republicans in four counties) will now run on office-block ballots, where candidates are sorted by office and no one is given an advantage by the layout of the ballot.
That’s all combined to make for the most interesting New Jersey primary election in ages – one where voters, not party leaders, will be able to make the decisions about who should represent them in many congressional districts.
The top races that will come before voters on June 4 are for Senate, where Kim is likely to prevail in his primary and two notable Republicans have a shot at winning theirs; for the 3rd congressional district, where five Democrats and four Republicans are vying to succeed Kim in the House; and for the 8th congressional district, where Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) faces a serious challenge based largely on his inauspicious family ties.
Other primaries worth watching include a four-way Democratic contest to take on Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis), a head-to-head battle for the GOP nomination against Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff), and a challenge to Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) from a local mayor in his district. And plenty of other districts are hosting contested primaries as well, though in some the outcome seems pre-ordained.
Here’s what to watch for next Tuesday when voters go to the polls.
Top races
U.S. Senate
Democrats: Andy Kim, Patricia Campos-Medina, Larry Hamm
Republicans: Curtis Bashaw, Christine Serrano Glassner, Justin Murphy, Albert Harshaw
For a span of about four months, it looked like New Jersey was going to host the single most high-profile Senate primary of anywhere in the country: the showdown between Andy Kim, a three-term congressman with a colossal grassroots following, and Tammy Murphy, the first lady of New Jersey and the choice of the state’s most powerful Democrats.
But it was not to be. On March 24, a day before the filing deadline and a week before the county line was struck down, Murphy chose to drop out of the race; she had suffered a damaging string of losses to Kim at county conventions up and down the state, and concluded that the only way to beat him was through an expensive, negative campaign that she had little desire to wage.
That unexpectedly left Kim, who had been preparing and fundraising for an all-out brawl, as the overwhelming frontrunner for the Senate nomination. Every party boss in the state quickly got in line behind the congressman, who was far from their first choice but whom they decided they could live with.
There are still two other Democratic candidates vying for the nomination: Patricia Campos-Medina, a labor activist, and Larry Hamm, a former Newark school board member who co-chaired Bernie Sanders’ 2020 campaign in New Jersey. Both are running to Kim’s left, arguing that New Jersey needs a senator who will take strongly progressive positions on Medicare for All and the war in Gaza.
But Kim has a gigantic fundraising advantage, a huge lead in the lone post-Murphy poll of the race, and the support of most of the state’s progressives, who view him as an ally even if they’re not entirely aligned with him ideologically. The real question is not whether he will win, but by how much; will he be able to surpass, for example, the 59% of the primary vote Cory Booker received in 2013? How about the 84% Bob Menendez got as an appointed incumbent in 2006?
The Republican side of the aisle, on the other hand, is a much more competitive affair. Four candidates are running, two of whom have a serious shot at winning: Curtis Bashaw, a Cape May developer best known for restoring historic Congress Hall, and Christine Serrano Glassner, the mayor of Mendham Borough and the wife of longtime Donald Trump campaign official Michael Glassner. (Also running are former Tabernacle Committeeman Justin Murphy and U.S. Navy veteran Albert Harshaw.)
Thanks to a quirk in Kim’s line lawsuit, the ruling striking down the Democratic county line didn’t apply to the Republican primary, meaning that most Republican voters will still vote on ballots organized by party endorsement. That should provide a boost to Bashaw, who has 11 county lines – representing around 56% of the statewide Republican electorate – to Serrano Glassner’s six (30%), all of them in North Jersey. (The remaining four counties will not have GOP lines; Sussex and Salem never have them, while Atlantic and Burlington voluntarily eliminated them this year.)
Bashaw also has a huge money advantage, raising $1.4 million, much of it self-funded, to Serrano Glassner’s $475,000. In a race where, according to polls, both candidates started out with essentially zero name recognition, having enough money to spread one’s message and reach prospective voters is crucial.
But Serrano Glassner does have one big factor working in her favor: she has the endorsement of Donald Trump, the ultimate kingmaker in Republican politics. Trump announced his support for her at a rally in Wildwood earlier this month while dismissing Bashaw, who was also present at the rally, as a “Christie person.”
Serrano Glassner has also taken more Trump-aligned positions on some issues that are important to GOP voters, such as when she asserted that the 2020 election won by Joe Biden “wasn’t a fair election”; Bashaw has said that he believes Biden was duly and fairly elected. But with a large financial and institutional disadvantage, the question is whether or not she can get that messaging out to enough voters to win.
As for Menendez, whose corruption trial is currently ongoing, he didn’t file to run in either party’s primary – but June 4 is still an important day for him. That’s because it’s the deadline for candidates to file petitions to run in the November general election as an independent, something which Menendez hasn’t ruled out if he’s exonerated in court.
In fact, Menendez has started collecting the 800 necessary signatures to get that independent ballot slot, so he’s clearly taking the option seriously. Even if he does file, though, he could still drop back out of the race by August 16 and avoid appearing on the ballot.
Should Menendez follow through with an independent run, that could be a headache for Kim, who will have to contend with the possibility that the longtime senator will siphon away Democratic votes. But the fact that Kim had to fundraise for a competitive primary – and still has millions of dollars on hand – should help him establish his dominance.
CD-3
Democrats: Herb Conaway, Carol Murphy, Joe Cohn, Sarah Schoengood, Brian Schkeeper
Republicans: Rajesh Mohan, Shirley Maia-Cusick, Mike Faccone, Greg Sobocinski
Andy Kim’s campaign for the Senate has been one of the most closely covered New Jersey campaigns in years, both by local media and by national outlets. The race for the Burlington County-based House seat he’s leaving behind, however, has largely stayed under the radar, even though both parties are holding contested primaries.
On the Democratic side, there are five candidates running, including two sitting officeholders – Assemblyman Herb Conaway (D-Delran) and Assemblywoman Carol Murphy (D-Mount Laurel) – and three newcomers: civil rights lawyer Joe Cohn, businesswoman Sarah Schoengood, and teacher Brian Schkeeper.
Going by the typical indicators of political success, Conaway is ahead. He’s raised more money than all of his opponents combined, and has the support of the county Democratic organizations in the three counties that make up the 3rd district; in fact, he won all three county conventions in landslides.
A cohort of outside groups that support veterans and doctors for Congress (Conaway is both) has also thrown down another $500,000 on the race to promote Conaway. Murphy has the support of some similar national organizations, most notably EMILYs List, but they’ve declined to spend anything on her behalf.
Last but not least, the two available public polls of the race both show Conaway in the lead, albeit by different margins. One internal poll from the Murphy campaign found her trailing Conaway just 22%-18%, while another from a pro-Conaway PAC put Conaway up by a healthier 25%-11% margin.
As Conaway’s myriad opponents are quick to point out, though, the absence of the county line makes the race far more unpredictable than it might have been in prior years. If voters want to elect someone with experience winning fights in Republican-controlled legislative bodies – like Cohn – or someone much younger than the current generation of elected leaders – like Schoengood – the ballot design won’t discourage them from doing so.
There could also be some South Jersey history made, depending on the winner: Murphy or Schoengood would be the first South Jersey woman elected to Congress, while Conaway would be the first Black member of Congress from the region.
On the Republican side, the two top contenders seem to be Rajesh Mohan, a physician who ran for local office in his hometown of Holmdel in 2022, and Shirley Maia-Cusick, an immigration consultant who dropped down from the Senate race last year. Also on the ballot are Mike Faccone, a GOP county committeeman in Freehold, and Greg Sobocinski, who waged an independent bid for the same seat in 2022.
Mohan has the county line in all three counties – but thanks to a quirk in Burlington County, there is no Republican line this year. Democratic County Clerk Joanne Schwartz, breaking with nearly every one of her fellow clerks, decided that there was nothing stopping her from eliminating lines on both parties’ ballots, and a state judge agreed with her.
That makes the race more unpredictable, since Burlington County makes up a sizable majority of the district, and since Maia-Cusick has raised quite a bit more money than Mohan (much of it self-funded). Whoever wins the Republican primary, though, is still going to be the general election underdog in a seat that was recently redrawn to be dramatically more Democratic. Andy Kim’s successor is likely to be a Democrat; the main question is which one.
CD-8
Democrats: Rob Menendez (inc), Ravi Bhalla, Kyle Jasey
Republicans: Anthony Valdes
The person whose political fortunes were hardest hit by Bob Menendez’s bribery indictment was, of course, the senator himself. As for the second-most unfortunate soul? That would be Menendez’s son, Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City), who represents the urban North Jersey seat his father held two decades ago.
The younger Menendez has not been implicated in any way in his father’s wrongdoing, which revolved largely around his father’s second wife, Nadine. But his name remains Robert J. Menendez (he’s not a Junior because of his middle initial), which could be all that’s needed to bring him down, given how deeply unpopular Senator Menendez has become.
At least, that’s what his main opponent, Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla is counting on. Bhalla launched his campaign in December of last year and immediately honed in on the elder Menendez’s legal troubles, arguing that voters should send the entire Menendez family packing. The Hudson County Democratic organization is fully behind the younger Menendez, but that in many ways enhances Bhalla’s messaging against the machine.
Unlike many challengers, Bhalla actually has the money to get that message out, raising just over $2 million thanks to a combination of anti-Menendez donors and Sikh donors eager to see a turbaned Sikh elected to Congress for the first time in history. That money, combined with some assistance from a new outside group, has allowed Bhalla to flood mailboxes and airwaves with ads promoting himself and disparaging Menendez.
Menendez, though, hasn’t been a slouch on that front either, raising $1.7 million; he’s also gotten major outside support from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus PAC, which wants to guarantee that the majority-Hispanic 8th district continues to be represented by a Latino. After a sleepy first campaign in 2022 that amounted to a coronation, Menendez is very much putting in the work this time.
And as Menendez has pointed out, Bhalla may be a flawed messenger for an anti-corruption campaign. Bhalla was censured by the New Jersey Supreme Court in 2018 for his conduct as an attorney, and a recent lawsuit filed by a former city employee alleges that Bhalla politicized the hiring and laying off of city employees as mayor.
There are also some definite ideological differences in the race: Israel-Palestine (Menendez is friendlier to Israel than Bhalla); the turnpike expansion in Jersey City (something which Bhalla strongly opposes, while Menendez is more equivocal); and county organizational lines (Bhalla says he hates them, Menendez has no strong feelings), to name a few. But that has not been the main emphasis of the campaign; the race for the 8th district is much more one of personalities – and of names – than one of policy debates.
A third Democratic candidate, real estate lender Kyle Jasey, is also on the ballot. But despite coming from a notable family – his mother, Mila Jasey, was a state assemblywoman until this year – the younger Jasey has made little dent in the 8th district race and is expected to finish a distant third. There’s one Republican candidate, Anthony Valdes, running for the solidly Democratic district as well.
Worth watching
CD-2
Democrats: Tim Alexander, Joe Salerno, Carolyn Rush, Rodney Dean
Republicans: Jeff Van Drew (inc)
The last time Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis) was on the ballot, in 2022, he defeated Democratic civil rights attorney Tim Alexander by a punishing 59%-40% margin. Alexander is back this year, as are three other Democrats looking to deny re-election to the three-term congressman.
In addition to Alexander, there’s tech entrepreneur Joe Salerno, who has self-funded his way into a substantial fundraising lead; Carolyn Rush, an engineer and one of the co-plaintiffs on Andy Kim’s anti-line lawsuit; and Rodney Dean, something of a phantom candidate with no apparent online presence.
Alexander has party support in three of the 2nd district’s counties – Atlantic, Ocean, and Salem – while Cape May, Cumberland, and Gloucester Democrats essentially shrugged their shoulders and gave their endorsement to all three major candidates. Not that it’s likely to matter too much, anyways, since there won’t be any county lines on the ballot.
Ultimately, the race will probably come down to Alexander versus Salerno. Will Alexander’s greater institutional support and name recognition from his 2022 race be enough to win, or will the fact that Salerno has outspent his competitors nearly 3-to-1 put him over the top? Rush can’t be counted out entirely, though, given that her 2022 campaign against Alexander was largely ignored by the media but still earned 38% of the vote.
As for Van Drew, he’s looking more comfortable than ever after switching from Democrat to Republican four and a half years ago. He’s the chairman of Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign in New Jersey, and has no primary opponents for the first time since arriving in Congress.
CD-5
Democrats: Josh Gottheimer (inc)
Republicans: Mary Jo Guinchard, George Song
Ever since Josh Gottheimer unseated conservative Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) in 2016, Republicans have dearly hoped to defeat him. But that hope has waned in each cycle since then, especially after the 2021 redistricting process shifted the 5th district deeper into Bergen County and made it substantially bluer; Gottheimer won 55%-44% in 2022.
This year, two Republicans have stepped up to take Gottheimer on: Mary Jo Guinchard, a former mayor from a small New York town who has recently taken to running for county-level office in Bergen County, and George Song, a member of the Paramus school board and one of the few Korean American Republicans in New Jersey politics.
On paper, Song seems like the stronger candidate for Republicans. But it’s Guinchard who’s likely favored in the primary, since she has the county line in Bergen County, which makes up a substantial majority of the district; Song has the line in much smaller Passaic County, while Sussex County does not have a line. Guinchard has also outraised Song, though neither candidate has anywhere near enough money to compete with Gottheimer’s staggering $18 million.
A Guinchard victory would be just fine by Gottheimer, who has already dubbed her “MAGA Mary” and highlighted her conservative stances. But unlike in 2022, when he sent out mailers promoting his preferred GOP opponent, Gottheimer doesn’t care enough to get involved one way or the other.
CD-9
Democrats: Bill Pascrell (inc), Mohamed Khairullah
Republicans: Billy Prempeh, Hector Castillo
If he’s re-elected this year, 87-year-old Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) will become the new oldest member of the House. That prompted several local Democrats in his 9th congressional district to take a look at challenging him – but the one who ended up joining the race doesn’t seem likely to win.
The first potential Pascrell challenger to emerge was Paterson Mayor André Sayegh, who was serious enough about the possibility that his allies put a poll in the field testing him against Pascrell. When Sayegh ultimately decided against a campaign, Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-North Haledon) threw her hat in the ring, but she too bowed out after it became clear she wouldn’t get any party support.
Local Muslim leaders in the 9th district – which has one of the country’s largest Palestinian American communities – still wanted a challenger who would push Pascrell for what they deemed to be his overly pro-Israel stances. They landed on Mohamed Khairullah, who has led the small Passaic County borough of Prospect Park since 2005.
Since getting in the race in March, Khairullah has campaigned hard and fundraised respectably; in fact, he managed to outraise Pascrell in the pre-primary reporting period. But Pascrell is not getting caught asleep at the wheel, and has the full weight of the 9th Democratic organization behind him. Every local Democratic state legislator and nearly every local mayor are backing him; he even has endorsements from three members of the Prospect Park Borough Council, shunning their own town’s mayor.
It’s quite possible that Khairullah will do very well in the 9th district’s Muslim and Arab communities, as well as with progressive voters frustrated with the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel. But in a district that’s primarily made up of Hispanic and middle-class white voters, that wouldn’t be nearly enough for victory.
Assuming he wins his primary, Pascrell will probably go on to face U.S. Air Force veteran Billy Prempeh, who held him to an unexpectedly close 55%-44% victory in 2022. Prempeh has a Republican primary opponent, Hector Castillo, whose campaign seems to be going nowhere.
Also on the ballot
CD-1
Democrats: Donald Norcross (inc)
Republicans: Teddy Liddell, Claire Gustafson, Damon Galdo
Rep. Donald Norcross (D-Camden) is very likely to win re-election in November in his solidly blue, Camden-based district. The only question is, which Republican will he be defeating?
Will it be Teddy Liddell, a retired U.S. Army captain with a compelling story who has party support in Camden and Burlington Counties? Will it be Claire Gustafson, a former Collingswood school board member who was the GOP’s nominee for the same seat in 2020 and 2022 and who has the line in Gloucester County? Or will it be Damon Galdo, a carpenter running as an outsider after losing to Gustafson in the 2022 primary?
Mathematically, the safest bet is Liddell, given that Camden County makes up a substantial majority of the district. But Gustafson may retain some loyalty from Republican voters after her two prior campaigns, which would be helpful in an inexpensive and low-profile primary.
CD-4
Democrats: Matt Jenkins
Republicans: Chris Smith (inc), David Schmidt
This time two years ago, Rep. Chris Smith (R-Manchester) was engaged in a serious Republican primary fight to keep the seat in Congress he’s held since 1981. Smith had angered Donald Trump with his support for various Democratic-led bills, inspiring a wave of right-wing primary challengers; one of them, podcaster Mike Crispi, broke away from the pack and held Smith to a 58%-37% win in a district that had been redrawn to include quite a bit of new territory for the congressman.
That prompted some to wonder whether a stronger challenger would arise to take on Smith in 2024. But with Smith and Trump back to friendlier relations, such a challenger never emerged, and the only primary opponent Smith is facing is David Schmidt, who ran as an independent in 2022 and got 0.5% of the vote. Smith should win handily – perhaps more in line with the 95% of the primary vote he got in 2020.
4th district Democrats are running Matt Jenkins, the party’s 2022 nominee who once again faces steep odds in a district configured to be as Republican as it can possibly be.
CD-6
Democrats: Frank Pallone (inc), John Hsu
Republicans: Scott Fegler, Gregg Mele
Rep. Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch), a member of the House since 1988 and the top Democrat on the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee, is likely to face Republican food importer Scott Fegler in his solidly Democratic district this November. But first, both have to beat underdog primary challengers.
For Pallone, that means going up against John Hsu, an environmental activist affiliated with progressive Senate candidate Larry Hamm. Hsu ran for the same seat once before, in 2020, but dropped out long before the primary; Pallone ended up defeating a different primary challenger that year 79%-17%, which is a good benchmark for how he’ll do next Tuesday.
Fegler, meanwhile, is up against Gregg Mele, the 2021 Libertarian Party nominee for governor on his fifth run for public office. Mele’s best shot at winning the nomination came when he challenged Fegler’s petition signatures; after that challenge failed, Mele’s off-the-line campaign became much more of an uphill climb.
CD-7
Democrats: Sue Altman
Republicans: Tom Kean Jr. (inc), Roger Bacon
The general election contest in New Jersey’s 7th congressional district, by far the most competitive district in the state and one of the most pivotal seats in the entire country, has been essentially set for months: Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), a freshman Republican who previously served in the New Jersey Legislature, versus Sue Altman, a Democrat and the former state director of the progressive Working Families Party.
That matchup will at last become official on June 4. Altman is fully unopposed in her primary, having boxed out several Democratic opponents before convention season; Kean faces gadfly challenger Roger Bacon, who could siphon off a few ardent pro-Trump voters but whose electoral track record leaves much to be desired.
CD-10
Democrats: Donald Payne Jr. (inc, deceased)
Republicans: Carmen Bucco
When Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-Newark) tragically died in April, it triggered a special election to replace him featuring no fewer than 12 candidates, 11 of them Democrats. But that special Democratic primary won’t take place until July; because Payne died after the regular primary filing deadline, he’ll still appear on the June 4 ballot unopposed.
Once Payne is posthumously certified as the winner, which will happen on June 17, Democrats in the 10th district will call a convention to replace him on the general election ballot. That convention is likely to happen after the July 16 special primary, though county committeemembers have no obligation to choose the special primary winner as the general election nominee.
Republican Carmen Bucco is unopposed in both the regular and special primaries for the deep-blue, majority-Black district.
CD-11
Democrats: Mikie Sherrill (inc), Mark De Lotto
Republicans: Joe Belnome, Raafat Barsoom, John Sauers
Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) has kept local Democrats in her district happy enough that she hasn’t faced a primary opponent since arriving in Congress in 2019.
That’s changing this year thanks to “dark horse” Democratic challenger Mark De Lotto – but De Lotto has run a shoestring campaign, failing to file any fundraising reports or do much of anything at all besides promote his unusual tax plan, the Singular System. Expect Sherrill to win in a landslide.
The Republican primary in the 11th district is a bit more interesting, but not by much. Belleville building inspector (and January 6 attendee) Joe Belnome has all three county GOP lines after winning each county nominating process unopposed; accountant John Sauers and physician Raafat Barsoom could have competed for those lines, but they didn’t, and thus are now stuck running much more difficult off-the-line campaigns.
Sherrill first got to office by flipping a longtime Republican seat, but the 11th district was made far more Democratic in the last redistricting process, and Sherrill won by 19 percentage points in 2022; no matter who the GOP nominee is, most observers are expecting something similar this year.
CD-12
Democrats: Bonnie Watson Coleman (inc), Daniel Dart
Republicans: Darius Mayfield, Thomas Jones Jr.
Since being elected in 2014, Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing) has proudly worn the label of New Jersey’s most progressive member of Congress, something that came to the fore recently after she broke with most of her Democratic colleagues and voted against providing military aid for Israel. This year, her progressive stances have earned her a primary challenge.
Daniel Dart, a former member of the Princeton school board and a Republican until at least 2017, is running against the five-term congresswoman as a moderate Democrat who wants to work across the aisle on issues like border security and taxes. (The 68-year-old Dart has also said that the 79-year-old Watson Coleman should step aside in favor of a younger generation.) Thanks to self-funding, he’s accumulated $143,000, which is enough money to run a real campaign, though as an incumbent Watson Coleman has been able to raise and spend much more.
Watson Coleman is near-certain to win, but her margin will be interesting to track. Does she retain the same ironclad loyalty of her Democratic constituents as in past elections – she won her 2020 and 2016 primaries with 89% and 94% of the vote – or has Dart tapped into a real vein of discontent?
The winner of the Republican primary is likely to be businessman Darius Mayfield, who lost to Watson Coleman 63%-36% in 2022. Also on Republican primary ballots is Thomas Jones Jr., a North Plainfield school board member with no county lines and no apparent fundraising.