The race for Democratic congressional nomination in New Jersey’s 3rd is a statistical dead heat, with roughly half of the voters (49%) still undecided, according to an internal poll commissioned by one of the candidates, Assembly Majority Whip Carol Murphy (D-Mount Laurel).
The poll has Assemblyman Herb Conaway, Jr. (D-Delran) at 22% and Murphy at 18% in a race completely reset last week by a federal judge’s ruling that obliterated county organization lines and mandated office block ballots.
Conaway had won organization lines in Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties in a contest to replace Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who is giving up his House seat to run for the U.S. Senate.
Civil rights attorney Joe Cohn is at 4% and businesswoman Sarah Schoengood is at 3%, making this a likely two-person race between Conaway and Murphy, two incumbent state legislators from Burlington. A fifth candidate, Brian Schkeeper, a teacher, joined the race last week and was not included in the poll.
“Such a wide-open contest is likely to be very volatile with both Murphy and Conaway viable candidates to capture the Democratic nomination if their campaign’s resources are at near-parity,” said Ben Lazarus of Target Smart, Murphy’s pollster. “However, it is critical to understand the inherent demographic advantage that Murphy holds when it comes to gender, as women represent roughly 61% of the likely primary electorate in this district.”
At this point, all eyes will be on first-quarter fundraising numbers to see where the two campaigns are.
“If she has the resources necessary to communicate her record of advocating for South Jersey women and working families, Murphy has a clear path to becoming the first woman elected to Congress from South Jersey,” Lazarus said.
The New Jersey Globe reviewed the full poll.
The poll was conducted from March 14-17, with a sample size of 350 registered Democrats and a margin of error of +/- 5.2%.