A new U.S. Senate poll conducted by Emerson College Polling in conjunction with PIX11 and The Hill puts Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) far ahead of his two Democratic primary opponents, positioning Kim as the heavy favorite in the race following First Lady Tammy Murphy’s exit.
The poll, which was published this morning in The Hill, puts Kim at 51% support among New Jersey Democratic primary voters; activists Patricia Campos-Medina and Larry Hamm, Kim’s remaining foes, draw 6% and 5%, respectively.
Kim and Murphy had been locked in a competitive primary fight for indicted Senator Bob Menendez’s seat, with both candidates raising millions of dollars and garnering high-profile endorsements. But when Murphy withdrew from the race in late March, Kim quickly assumed the status of frontrunner, with many Murphy supporters quickly flocking to his campaign; today’s poll confirms that he has a massive advantage in the reshaped Democratic primary.
Emerson also tested a hypothetical general election in which Menendez, who will go on trial next month on federal corruption charges, chooses to run as an independent, which he has threatened to do if he’s exonerated in court.
In that hypothetical, Emerson finds Menendez at 9% support, far behind the (unnamed) Democratic Senate nominee at 49% and the Republican nominee at 42%. That indicates Menendez has little chance of winning re-election as an independent – but that he could draw enough of a vote to make Democrats fret about what should otherwise be a safe seat for their party.
According to the poll, Menendez has just a 14% approval rating, while 62% of voters disapprove of him. But Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said that his support is not evenly distributed across different demographics.
“Hispanic and Black voters in New Jersey are more supportive of Menendez as an independent candidate,” Kimball said. “17% support the senator rather than a hypothetical Democratic or Republican candidate, compared to 6% of white voters. Additionally, 24% of voters under 30 support Menendez on a three-way ballot.”
The Emerson College Poll was conducted from March 26-29 with a sample size of 1,000 registered voters and a margin of error of +/- 3%. The sample included 408 Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.8% and 310 Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.5%.