Home>Campaigns>August polls: sometimes right, sometimes not

Left to right: former New Jersey Governors James E. McGreevey, Christine Todd Whitman, and Brendan Byrne, former Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, and former Governors Chris Christie, Jim Florio, Donald DiFrancesco and Richard Codey. (Photo: Office of the Governor.)

August polls: sometimes right, sometimes not

By David Wildstein, August 18 2021 11:00 am

A new Monmouth University poll that puts Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 16 points, 52%-36%, means a closer race than it was four years ago.

In the summer of 2017, Murphy led then-Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno by 27 points in a July Monmouth poll, by 21 points in a July NBC/Marist poll, and by 25 points in a Quinnipiac University poll released just after Labor Day.

Murphy won that race by 13.3 points, 55.6%-42.3%.

A Monmouth University poll released in August 2013 gave Republican Gov. Chris Christie a lead of 20 points, 56%-36%.  Christie defeated State Sen. Barbara Buono (D-Metuchen) by a 60%-38% margin.

An August 2009 poll from Monmouth University showed Christie 14 points ahead of Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, 50%-36%.  Corzine later surged back – there had been some talk of Democrats asking him to drop out of the race – and Christie won, 48.5%-44.9%.

Quinnipiac University had a poll in August 2005 that put Corzine in front of Republican Doug Forrester by 10 points, 50%-40%.  Corzine won the race by 12.5 points.

In August 2001, Democrat James E. McGreevey led Republican Bret Schundler by 19 points, 49%-30%.  McGreevey won by nearly 15 points.

In 1997, McGreevey came within just 25,426 votes of ousting GOP Gov. Christine Todd Whitman in a 47%-46% race.  An Eagleton-Rutgers poll taken after the Democratic primary has Whitman ahead by 16 points, 48%-32%.

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