August polls: sometimes right, sometimes not

A new Monmouth University poll that puts Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 16 points, 52%-36%, means a closer race than it was four years ago.

In the summer of 2017, Murphy led then-Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno by 27 points in a July Monmouth poll, by 21 points in a July NBC/Marist poll, and by 25 points in a Quinnipiac University poll released just after Labor Day.

Murphy won that race by 13.3 points, 55.6%-42.3%.

A Monmouth University poll released in August 2013 gave Republican Gov. Chris Christie a lead of 20 points, 56%-36%.  Christie defeated State Sen. Barbara Buono (D-Metuchen) by a 60%-38% margin.

An August 2009 poll from Monmouth University showed Christie 14 points ahead of Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, 50%-36%.  Corzine later surged back – there had been some talk of Democrats asking him to drop out of the race – and Christie won, 48.5%-44.9%.

Quinnipiac University had a poll in August 2005 that put Corzine in front of Republican Doug Forrester by 10 points, 50%-40%.  Corzine won the race by 12.5 points.

In August 2001, Democrat James E. McGreevey led Republican Bret Schundler by 19 points, 49%-30%.  McGreevey won by nearly 15 points.

In 1997, McGreevey came within just 25,426 votes of ousting GOP Gov. Christine Todd Whitman in a 47%-46% race.  An Eagleton-Rutgers poll taken after the Democratic primary has Whitman ahead by 16 points, 48%-32%.