Allen, Oliver remain largely unknown in governor’s race

Despite long and successful careers in New Jersey government and politics, most voters have never heard of the two candidates for lieutenant governor, according to a Monmouth University Poll released on Wednesday.

The Democratic incumbent, Sheila Oliver, has statewide favorables of 12%-5%, with 66% of New Jersey voters saying they’ve never heard of her and another 17% saying they had no opinion. Prior to becoming lieutenant governor, Oliver was a state assemblywoman and Assembly Speaker.

Republican nominee Diane Allen, a former television news broadcaster and six-term state senator, is even less known. A full 80% of voters say they’ve never heard of her, while 8% view her favorably, 2% view her unfavorably, and 10% say they have no opinion.

“I put those questions [about LG favorability] in there as reality checks on the echo chamber that is political punditry, which says, ‘Well, Diane Allen is certainly well known in Trenton circles,’” said Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Once you venture out of there and into what was basically her base in the Philadelphia media market, very few people say they’ve heard of her. And many people probably have heard of her, but don’t even remember her at this point.”

That might not matter, as New Jersey does not hold separate elections for Lt.  Governor. Oliver’s fate is tied to her running mate, Gov. Phil Murphy, while Allen is depending on Republican Jack Ciattarelli to win. The same Monmouth Poll gives Murphy a 16-point lead.

Both Oliver and Allen are better known in their home areas, although even there both are not recognized by a majority of voters.

Oliver, who is from Essex County, holds a 14-4% favorability rating in North Jersey and a 14-6% rating in Central Jersey, versus a 7-6% rating in South Jersey.

Allen, whose history in Burlington County has led some in her party to believe she will aid her ticket in the state’s southern counties, holds a 13-2% favorability rating in South Jersey, with 69% saying they’ve never heard of her. Her favorability ratings in North and Central Jersey are 5-2% and 7-3%, respectively.

As the highest-ranking Black woman to hold office in New Jersey, Oliver holds comparatively strong ratings among Black voters, with 28% having a favorable opinion and 0% having an unfavorable opinion. Still, 53% of Black voters haven’t heard of her, and another 19% have no opinion.

By comparison, Allen is nearly unknown among Black voters, with a 2-1% favorability spread and 89% saying they’ve never heard of her. She is instead strongest among white voters, 12% of whom have a favorable opinion of her and 3% an unfavorable opinion.

Among women, Oliver is better known, with a 13-3% favorability spread versus Allen’s 6-2%. Allen posts a 10-2% rating among men, while Oliver’s is 11%-8%.

Partisanship and age are also both good predictors of name recognition. More Democrats have heard of Oliver and more Republicans have heard of Allen, while older voters are more likely to have heard of both.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted between August 11-16 with a sample size of 810 registered voters and a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.

This story was updated at 11:10 a.m. with comment from Murray.