Sherrill leads Ciattarelli by 5 points in GOP poll

A super PAC supporting Republican Jack Ciattarelli has an internal poll showing Democrat Mikie Sherrill with a five-point lead in the New Jersey governor’s race.

The poll, conducted by Kellyanne Conway for Change NJ in June, puts Sherrill ahead, 47%-42%, with 11% undecided.

The New Jersey Globe reviewed the questionnaire and the toplines of the full survey.  The party registration, gender, and race of the poll closely mirror the actual voter turnout of the 2021 gubernatorial election.

“Four years ago, Jack Ciattarelli nearly knocked out incumbent Phil Murphy, who is now even more unpopular, and just months ago, President Trump had the best showing for a Republican presidential candidate in New Jersey in 32 years. New Jersey is ripe for positive change because voters are demanding it,” Conway said.

More than half of New Jersey voters (53%) say New Jersey is on the wrong track, and 52% said the state needs “major change.”  Asked if they would vote for Murphy if he ran for a third term, 57% said they wouldn’t, and 63% said they prefer New Jersey “take the state in a different direction from Murphy.”  Stil, the poll puts Murphy’s favorables at 47%.

The poll shows that voters, by a 60%-34% margin, want a collaborative governor who can work with the Trump administration, “not a Gavin Newsom or JB Pritzker.”

“Sherrill’s ‘Trump, Trump, Trump’ strategy is so 2018,” Conway said, who said Donald Trump has a 45% favorable rating in New Jersey.

Carlos Cruz, a spokesman for the super PAC, said the decision of the Democratic Governors Association to reserve $20 million in ad spending for Sherrill this fall confirms the accuracy of his poll.

“Her voting record is a nightmare for middle class, middle of the road families across the Garden State,” Cruz stated.

A Rutgers-Eagleton poll released earlier this month has Sherrill ahead by twenty points, 51%-31%, with 13% still undecided.   That poll, which has been sharply criticized by Republicans, appears to have under-sampled Republicans by about six percent based on the last gubernatorial election.

The KA Consulting Poll was conducted by telephone between June 24-27 with a sample size of 800 likely and registered New Jersey voters and a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.