Democrat Mikie Sherrill has a twenty-point lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the New Jersey governor’s race, with President Donald Trump figuring prominently in voters’ decisions, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released this morning.
Sherrill leads Ciattarelli, 51%-31%, with 13% undecided. When leaners are included, Sherrill’s lead grows to 56%-35%. Each candidate is identified by their political party.
“Early polling on the governor’s race should serve as a baseline or a barometer of how voters are feeling in the moment, not as some crystal ball predicting the future four months from now,” said Ashley Koning, the director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers. “A lot can happen between now and November, and we know this gap will very likely narrow in the next several months. We only need to look back to 2021 to see how much a race can change throughout a cycle.”
Polling failed in 2021, when Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy defeated Ciattarelli by a narrow three-point margin after several polls, including some conducted by the governor’s campaign, showed Murphy ahead by double-digits. After the election, Murphy fired his pollster.
“Add to this an intense national political landscape that will, once again, surely play a role in the governor’s race here at home,” Koning said. “Come November, what will matter is who actually turns out to vote.”
Ciattarelli’s top strategist, Chris Russell, panned the poll as erroneous.
“In 2021, the Monmouth Poll screwed up the New Jersey governor’s race so badly they got shut down. Eagleton is worse and next,” said Russell. “From sampling adults instead of registered or likely voters to a turnout model that is pure fantasy, this poll is a steaming pile of shit.”
Russell argues that Eagleton’s own cross-tabs show inaccurate information.
“Unweighted data should not look like this,” Russell stated. “Respondents report voting 65%-35% for (Kamala) Harris – actual 52%-46% — in 2024, and 72%-28% for (Phil) Murphy – actual 51%-48% in 2021. Harris +30 and Murphy +44? Not serious.”
More than half of New Jersey (52%) say Trump’s presidency is a major factor in who they’ll support for governor, while 18% call it a minor factor and 30% say it won’t affect them at all.
“Trump’s influence appears to be more of a benefit to Sherrill right now, given key groups more likely to support her are also more likely to claim the president is a factor in their vote choice, while those more supportive of Ciattarelli do not,” Koning stated. “While Trump’s endorsement may have helped in the primaries, these numbers are an early sign that the endorsement may play differently when it comes to the general.”
The poll puts Sherrill’s statewide favorables at 50%-21%, and Ciattarelli upside-down at 33%-42%. The poll was conducted less than a week after the June 10 primary election, following negative ads waged against both candidates.
Sherrill leads Ciattarelli among independents (45%-28%), women (58%-25%), and men (44%-37%). She is ahead 70%-10% among non-white voters; Ciattarelli is ahead, 44%-39%, among white voters.
Sherrill is viewed more favorably than Ciattarelli on most major issues, but her advantage dissipates when it comes to the issue voters say matters most: taxes.
According to the poll, 39% of voters say Sherrill would do a better job handling taxes, compared to 34% who prefer Ciattarelli — a statistical tie. Another 14% say neither candidate is up to the task, and 14% remain unsure.
But Sherrill’s does better when voters are asked about the second biggest issue: cost of living and affordability; 45% trust Sherrill, while just 29% say they would trust Ciattarelli.
On other pocketbook issues, Sherrill still holds a lead, though by a narrower margin. She’s ahead 42%-33% on the economy and jobs, and 42%-32% on the state budget and government spending. Still, roughly a quarter of voters say neither candidate is right for the job.
Sherrill posts larger margins on healthcare (51%-24%), education and schools (50%-24%), and transportation and infrastructure (45%-29%). On crime and safety, Ciattarelli closes the gap, trailing Sherrill by just two points, 39%-37%.
Among independents, the race is a toss-up on taxes, cost of living, the economy, and crime, but on education, Sherrill holds a 46%-19% lead. On health care, it’s 45%-16% in her favor, and on transportation and infrastructure, Sherrill leads 40%-23%.
The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll was conducted from June 13-16 with a sample size of 621 adults voters and a margin of error of +/- 5.4%.
This story was updated at 10:56 AM with comment from Russell.
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June 2, 2021