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John McCann filed his nominating petitions at the state Division of Elections office in Trenton on April 2, 2018.

McCann poll has Gottheimer ahead by 9 points

5th district has nearly same number of Democrats and Republicans

By David Wildstein, October 25 2018 5:03 pm

Freshman Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff) has a nine-point lead over Republican John McCann, 47%-38% in New Jersey’s 5th district, according to a McLaughlin & Associates poll conducted for the McCann campaign.

The most recent survey was done by Jim McLaughlin, a reputable Republican pollster.

The new poll puts Gottheimer’s favorables at 48%-18%, and McCann at 38%-16%.

The poll has a generic ballot of 46%-46%.   The 5th district is evenly divided in party registration: 153,803 Democrats and 150,788 Republicans.

Independents poll a combined 8%.

President Donald Trump has a 49%-49% job approval rating.  Trump carried the district in 2016 by one percentage point.

McLaughlin thinks the race is still competitive, despite Gottheimer’s enormous cash advantage.

“While Josh Gottheimer should benefit from the power of incumbency this survey shows Gottheimer to be vulnerable. Gottheimer misses benchmarks on the ballot and his name identification,” McLaughlin said.  “Outside political dynamics are working to inhibit Gottheimer’s share of the vote and helping John McCann.

The pollster is referring to the race for United States Senate, where Republican Bob Hugin, a retired pharmaceutical company CEO who has put more than $27 million of his own money into the campaign, is challenging incumbent Bob Menendez.

Hugin leads by eight points in the 5th district, 46%-38%, the poll says. Two independent candidates included on the survey, Murray Sabrin (Libertarian) and Madelyn Hoffman (Green Party) each polled 5%.

McCann raised some eyebrows in August when he released an internal poll that had him three points ahead of Gottheimer, 39%-36% and 66% name identification.

That caused Gottheimer, the Human Fundraising Machine, to solicit campaign contributions because he was running behind.

“Chip in now, before it’s too late,” a Gottheimer online fundraising solicitation read.

McCann spent $12,000 on poling in August, according to a report he filed with the Federal Election Commission.    That included $4,000 for the Annapolis-based Strategic Campaign Group, and $8,000 paid to TeleOpinion Research.

Gottheimer has raised $6,326,126 in his bid for a second term and has $5,059,282 in the bank.

McCann, a former Cresskill councilman, reported raising $578,310, including a $328,620 personal loan he made to his campaign.  He is reporting $32,564 cash-on-hand.

While only McLaughlin’s polling memo and questionnaire were released publicly, the New Jersey Globe reviewed the pull results.

Gottheimer defeated seven-term Republican Rep. Scott Garrett by a 51%-47% margin in 2016.

The poll of 400 likely general election voters was conducted from October 13-15 and has a margin of error of +/-5%.

McCann poll NJ CD 5 - Executive Summary (003)
McCann poll October 2018

McCann August poll:

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