A majority of likely New Jersey voters prefer Democrats to represent them in the U.S. House of Representatives, a new Rutgers-Eagleton poll says.
In a generic House ballot test, 54% would vote for a Democratic congressional candidate and 40% would go Republican.
Democrats lead among Independent voters by seven points, 47%-40%, on a generic ballot test.
New Jersey has an extraordinary number of competitive congressional races on November 6 – the most since 1980 – and the road to a Democratic majority in the House could depend on how the Garden State votes.
Other polls in recent weeks show races in the 3rd, 7th and 11th districts to be within the margin of error.
The Cook Political Report, which offers non-partisan ratings on House races, ranks the 3rd and 7th, where Republican incumbents Tom MacArthur (R-Toms River) and Leonard Lance (R-Clinton), as toss-ups. Cook has the 2nd district seat being vacated by 12-term Republican Frank LoBiondo (R-Ventnor) as Likely Democratic, and the 11th district seat of retiring 12-term Republican Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-Harding) as Leans Democratic.
State Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D-Dennis) faces Seth Grossman, a former Atlantic County Freeholder, in the 2nd district.
In the 11th district, Assemblyman Jay Webber (R-Morris Plains) faces Democrat Mikie Sherrill, a former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot and assistant U.S. Attorney.
MacArthur, a two-term congressman, faces Democrat Andy Kim, a former Obama White House staffer.
Lance’s opponent in his bid for a sixth term is former Assistant U.S. Secretary of State Tom Malinowski.
New Jersey could wind up with an 11-1 Democratic House delegation. It could go 12-0 if Democrat Josh Welle succeeds in his long-shot bid to defeat nineteen-term Rep. Christopher Smith (R-Hamilton).
Results are from a statewide poll of 1,006 adults contacted by live callers on landlines and cell phones from Oct. 12-19. The poll contains a subsample of 896 registered voters and 496 likely voters. The entire sample has a margin of error of +/-3.6%; the registered voter subsample has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points, and the likely voter subsample has a margin of error of +/-5.1 percentage points. Interviews were done in English and, when requested, Spanish.