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NJ GOP Chairman Bob Hugin campaigning for U.S. Senate on October 2, 2018. (Photo by Nikita Biryukov)

Hugin welcomes the rain

Candidate hopes bad weather keeps Democrats at home

By Nikita Biryukov, November 05 2018 8:18 pm

Bob Hugin is banking on a rainy day.

“It’s raining out, right? That’s Republican weather,” Hugin said. “These other guys are going to stay at home, we’re going to make it happen. It’s such a big event. Thank God. God’s always looking out for us.”

Polls open in a mere handful of hours, and with storms on the way, the race watchers’ predictions for turnout tomorrow could be thrown for a loop, though research suggests the weather won’t shift the result all that much, and that shift might not favor Republicans, except for in GOP strongholds like Ocean County, where Hugin appeared with Reps. Tom MacArthur and Chris Smith Monday night.

While a study conducted in 2007 found that rain tended to depress turnout in a way that favored Republican candidates, research since then has contested those results. More recent studies say that poor weather tends to dissuade unengaged or undecided voters from going to the polls.

Elsewhere in the state, that could work to anyone’s benefit, but in Ocean County, Republicans are enthusiastic.

The crowd of roughly 200 that attended a dinner in a hotel ballroom in Tom’s River Monday night gave Hugin a standing ovation when he took to the stage, repeating the gesture when he concluded his speech.

It’s also possible that poor weather will keep some voters in Democrat-controlled cities that lack a competitive House race, like Hoboken or any number of cities in Hudson County, keep voters there from trudging to the polls to cast a ballot for Menendez. Some Democrats have expressed such fears privately in the last few days, before forecasts for Tuesday’s weather were even in.

Still, despite Hugin’s claim of internal polls that show him two points up over U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, public polls have steadily shown Menendez in the lead, meaning that whatever the weather, Hugin’s in for the fight of his life.

Not one to toot his own horn, Hugin admitted as much, though he discounted without naming a Quinnipiac poll released Monday that showed Menendez leading him by a stark 15 points.

“The polls we talk about, they’re so ridiculous,” Hugin said. “Chuck Schumer’s put so much money in this race Claire McCaskill will probably lose in Missouri.”

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3 thoughts on “Hugin welcomes the rain

  1. God bless you bob hugin and thank you for serving our country in the marines late Tuesday night we will have a new senator bob hugin this race is a dead heat race a lot of fake polls out there to make corrupt bob menendez look good so people of New Jersey Lets do this for bob hugin. Go out wait in line wait in rain just vote for bob hugin new jersey really needs him We have to move away from corrupt bob menendez. New beginning vote bob hugin!!

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