The Cook Political Report has moved Republican Frank LoBiondo’s 2nd district House seat from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic and Republican Rodney Frelinghuysen’s 11th district seat from Toss Up to Lean Democratic.
Democratic State Senator Jeff Van Drew will face Republican Seth Grossman, a former Atlantic County freeholder, in the fall.
“Trump carried the district, but Republicans are all but waving a white flag and this is now one of the likeliest Democratic pickups in the country,” said House Race editor and New Jersey native David Wasserman.
In the 11th, Wasserman points to Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s fundraising prowess — “a staggering $2.8 million” — and says she is “poised to take advantage of the rapid shift of this white-collar district away from Republicans.”
“Republicans are optimistic they can link Sherrill to Democratic ticket-leading Sen. Bob Menendez, who was severely admonished by the Senate Ethics Committee,” Wasserman said. “But there are plenty of votes Democrats can use to portray Webber as a movement social conservative out of step with suburban voters. For now, the momentum is on Sherrill’s side and the races moves from Toss Up to Lean Democratic.