Home>Congress>Poll: New Jersey dislikes Trump, but not as much in competitive House districts

President Donald Trump. Photo by Michael Vadon.

Poll: New Jersey dislikes Trump, but not as much in competitive House districts

Trump numbers not terrible in combined Van Drew, Kim, Smith, Gottheimer, Malinowski, Sherrill districts

By David Wildstein, September 25 2019 11:00 am

President Donald Trump remains hugely unpopular in New Jersey, but 58% of the state does not think he should be impeached, according to a Monmouth University poll released this morning.

Trump has upside-down approval ratings in New Jersey of 37%-56%.  Nearly 3 out of 5 New Jerseyans (59%) want a new president after the 2020 election and just 34% say he should be re-elected.

In the congressional districts represented mostly by Republicans until 2018, Trump’s approvals are not as bad.    He’s at 43%-48% in districts represented by Reps. Jeff Van Drew (NJ-2), Andy Kim (NJ-3), Christopher Smith (NJ-4), Josh Gottheimer (NJ-5), Tom Malinowski (NJ-7) and Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11).

In those districts, 52% want a new president and 41% say they will support Trump for re-election.  Trump won those six districts by a 50%-46% margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

“New Jersey is a solidly blue state when it comes to presidential elections,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.  “But it looks like it might be even bluer in 2020 with a coattail effect that could potentially help new Democratic House members hold on to their seats.”

The more important number for Van Drew, Kim, Gottheimer, Malinowski and Sherrill may be impeachment.

In those districts, just 30% support impeachment and 65% are opposed to it.    Only 38% of residents of these congressional districts say a House inquiry into impeachment is a good idea, while 57% think it’s a bad one.

The poll was conducted before recent news that Trump asked the Ukrainian president to find some dirt about Joe Biden’s son.

“Opposition to impeachment in New Jersey is similar to what we have seen in national public opinion polls prior to recent news about the Ukraine issue. But it’s worth noting this sentiment was higher in districts that Democrats managed to take away from Republicans in the last two election cycles,” said Murray. “The bottom line is that most voters in districts that flipped last year want to see Trump turned out of office in 2020.  But at the time of the poll, they did not want Congress to get bogged down in an impeachment process.”

Murray says that the Democratic base wants impeachment, but independent voters, particularly those who live in traditionally Republican districts, express more reservations.”

“The new representatives who flipped these seats in the last cycle need the support of both groups in 2020, which is why many of them avoided joining the call for an impeachment inquiry until this week,” said Murray. “The question is whether recent events have led more of their constituents to hold the same view.  This situation is evolving rapidly and New Jersey will provide a good test of its impact.”

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted from September 12 -16, 2019 with a sample size of 713 and a margin of error of +/- 3.9%.
MonmouthPoll_NJ_092519_Redacted

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