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Democratic wave in New Jersey, FiveThirtyEight predicts

Forecasts wins for Menendez, Kim, Malinowski and Sherrill

By David Wildstein, November 04 2018 12:28 am

FiveThirtyEight has forecasts that U.S. Senator Bob Menendez has an 11 in 12 chance (92.2%) of winning re-election to a third term on Tuesday, with New Jersey Democrats picking up four seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

According to FiveThirtyEight predictions, Andy Kim has a 5 in 9 (53.8%) chance of unseated Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-Toms River) in the 3rd district, Tom Malinowski has a 7 in 9 (77.2%) chance of ousting Rep. Leonard Lance (R-Clinton) in the 7th, and Mike Sherrill has a 6 in 7 (84.9%) chance of defeating Jay Webber for the 11th district seat of retiring Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen.

The only Republican FiveThirtyEight forecasts to win is Rep. Christopher Smith.  They say Smith has an 11 in 15 chance (92.9%) of winning a 20th term against Democrat Josh Welle.

In what they view as another likely pickup, FiveThirtyEight predicts that State Sen. Jeff Van Drew, a Democrat, has a 39 in 40 (97.7%) chance winning retiring Rep. Frank LoBiondo’s 2nd district seat against Republican Seth Grossman.

Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff) has a 79 in 80  (98.6%) chance of getting a second term in his race against Republican John McCann, FiveThirtyEight says.

FiveThirtyEight says other New Jersey Democrats running for re-election – Donald Norcross, Frank Pallone, Albio Sires, Bill Pascrell, Donald Payne and Bonnie Watson Coleman – all have a greater than 99 in 100 chance (99.9%) of winning.

Turnout Models

The FiveThirtyEight forecasts turnout for New Jersey is 2,811,000, a 45.1% turnout out of 6,232,000 eligible voters.  They say that New Jersey is 13.3% more Democratic than the national overall and is the 9th-most Democratic state in the U.S.

“The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings,” the site explains.

The forecasts turnout for the 3rd district is 281,000 out of 575,000 (48.9%), saying that the 3rd is 4.6% more Republican than the national overall.  In the 7th, the forecasts turnout is 287,000 out of 529,000 (54.3%) in a district that is 3.3% more Republican.  And in the 11th, FiveThirtyEight forecasts a turnout of 292,000 out of 550,000 (53.1%); the district is 4.5% more Republican than the U.S. is overall.

FiveThirtyEight says Republicans have a 5 in 6 (83.4%) chance of maintaining control of the U.S. Senate, and Democrats have a 6 in 7 (85.9%) chance of winning control of the House.

Owned by ABC News, FiveThirtyEight creates and analyzes statistical information on U.S. elections.  It is edited by Nate Silver.

In the 2008 presidential election, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states. In 2016, the site predicted that Hillary Clinton had a 71% chance of winning.

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4 thoughts on “Democratic wave in New Jersey, FiveThirtyEight predicts

    1. Sometimes typos happen, especially in a news organization that posts stories after 1 AM when they are relevant. I’m sorry I disappointed you.

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