Dem group polling in NJ-2 as party looks to expand playing field

In the last two election cycles, New Jersey’s once-competitive 2nd congressional district in the southern reaches of the state has been entirely ignored by both parties, allowing Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis) to win with ease. Heading into 2026, one Democratic group is looking to change that.

The Voter Protection Project, a Democratic-aligned national PAC, commissioned a Public Policy Polling poll of the 2nd district last week to show that, in the polling memo’s words, “Rep. Van Drew’s ‘Safe’ Seat May Be Flippable in 2026.” The poll itself contains mixed news for Democrats, but it’s still noteworthy that, as most people focus on two more obviously competitive New Jersey seats to the north, some national Democrats still see the 2nd district as worthy of attention.

When asked who they’d vote for between Van Drew and an unnamed Democratic candidate, 46% of the poll’s 505 respondents said Van Drew, 36% said a Democrat, and 18% were unsure. (Poll respondents often find it easier to opt for an unnamed generic candidate than for a specific nominee with specific flaws, though a strong Democratic recruit in the district could in theory outperform that baseline.)

The poll also previews what’s likely to become a major Democratic talking point against Van Drew and other Republicans: Medicaid cuts. Van Drew had vocally advocated against sweeping cuts to the popular health care program, but a bill that passed the House last week with his support would likely result in a large number of New Jerseyans losing health coverage.

PPP’s poll tested a Medicaid-focused message, and found that the number of voters who said it was “time for someone new” to represent the 2nd district increased from 42% to 47% after they were told about potential cuts to the program. In each case, more voters said they’d prefer someone new than said Van Drew should be re-elected.

Van Drew was first elected to the conservative-leaning 2nd district in 2018 as a Democrat, but famously defected to Republicans a year later in opposition to President Donald Trump’s impeachment. Democrats made a serious effort to unseat him in 2020 but fell short; the party all but gave up on the district after that, redrawing it to be more Republican and leaving its nominees to fend for themselves in 2022 and 2024.

Last year’s Democratic candidate, Joe Salerno, tried to turn things around, putting hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own money into his campaign and arguing that Van Drew was more beatable than he appeared. A few months before Election Day, Salerno released an internal poll (from a different pollster than today’s Voter Protection Project poll) showing Van Drew up 50% to 42%, a margin that he said was overcomable with Democratic investment.

But that poll, like many New Jersey polls last cycle, ended up being overly optimistic for Democrats. Salerno, who never got the outside attention he was hoping for, lost to Van Drew by a 58% to 41% margin as Trump was carrying the district 55%-43%.

(The new poll released today argues that Trump’s position has deteriorated since then. It puts the president’s favorability ratings in the district at 48% favorable and 44% unfavorable, while Van Drew is at 41%-34%.)

The 2026 field for the seat remains murky for now; Salerno could run again, and there has been talk of other intriguing Democratic candidates eying campaigns. South Jersey Democrats likely won’t turn their attention to the race for a while yet, given that their focus this year will be dedicated to putting Steve Sweeney in the governor’s office and getting their sizable but vulnerable Assembly delegation re-elected.

Even once this year’s elections are over, Trump’s more-than-12-point margin in the 2nd district means that there’s no guarantee the district will be competitive. New Jersey Democrats have a far more obvious target in Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield)’s 7th district and also have to play defense in Rep. Nellie Pou (D-North Haledon)’s 9th district, meaning that reach seats like the 2nd district would likely only become targets in a substantial blue wave.

When the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released its extensive and ambitious list of target seats earlier this year, the 2nd district was not on it. The release of today’s poll, some Democrats hope, will be the first step towards putting it there.

“This new polling proves that Van Drew is disliked, vulnerable, and could have a real fight on his hands in this competitive midterm election environment,” Voter Protection Project executive director Heather Grevenworth said in a release accompanying the poll. “Our group is highly motivated to find and support a candidate who can put this seat on the map and help deliver the majority to the Democrats next fall.”

The Public Policy Polling poll was conducted from May 21-22 on behalf of the Voter Protection Project with a sample size of 505 registered NJ-2 voters; no margin of error was provided.