Governor’s race is too close to call

The race for Governor of New Jersey is too close to call, with Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy essentially tied in a race that likely won’t be decided until least next week.

And in what could be a total realignment of politics in the state, Senate President Steve Sweeney is on the verge of losing his bid for re-election to a seventh term.  He trails Republican Edward Durr, a truck driver who reported spending just $153, by 2,009 votes in his South Jersey legislative district.

For the first time in 40 years, both candidates for governor went home without knowing the outcome of an election that cost more than $60 million.

The contest still lacks clarity, with the results potentially headed to a recount — and to court.

Essex County, where Murphy has 73% of the vote, 56 voting districts – almost all from communities of color — remain uncounted.

Election officials still don’t know how many provisional paper ballots were cast on Election Day.  It’s still uncertain which counties have included vote-by-mail ballots and early voting results, and some uncertainty remains regarding where uncounted votes are coming from.  Suddenly, VBM cure letters are critical.

Vote-by-mail ballots postmarked by 8 PM on Tuesday will be counted as long as they are delivered to county election officials by close of business on Monday.

If Murphy is able to win, he’ll need to avoid becoming embroiled in questions of the legitimacy of his victory.  That would require immediate transparency by election officials, including immediate disclosures of the number of outstanding ballots in their possession.

Seeking to become the first Democratic governor in 44 years to win a second term, Murphy was unable to produce big pluralities in Democratic strongholds which were energized four years ago in opposition to President Donald Trump and the state’s outgoing GOP governor, Chris Christie.

Ciattarelli, a former assemblyman from Central Jersey, benefitted from an invigorated base of Republicans and unaffiliated voters angry with the presidency of Joe Biden and with four years of Murphy in what seems to be a complete and total blue-collar revolt.

Ocean County produced a plurality of more than 76,000 votes for Ciattarelli, and Monmouth County delivered a margin of nearly 49,000 votes.

Ciattarelli has a lead of nearly 5,000 votes in his home county, Somerset.  Murphy won there in the last election.

Murphy leads in Essex by 71,000 and in Hudson by 59,000; in 2017, Murphy won Essex by nearly 99,000 votes and Hudson by about 69,000.   His plurality in Camden went from 44,000 four years ago to less than 29,000.

But Murphy’s lead in Passaic is under 2,000 – he won it by more than 21,000 in the last election – and his 13,000-vote win in Bergen is substantially less than the 34,000 votes he won it by four years ago.  Union County gave Murphy a plurality of more than 39,000 in 2017, but his lead over Ciattarelli now about 28,000.

If Murphy wins, it could be a result of Morris County becoming increasingly more Democratic.

When Christie unseated Gov. Jon Corzine in 2009, he won Morris by 47,500 votes; Ciattarelli’s lead in the onetime Republican stronghold is now at 24,000.

Ciattarelli leads in Gloucester by 10,000 votes – Murphy won it by 10,000 last time – and he has a 12-point lead in Cumberland; Murphy won it by 13-points in 2017.   His combined plurality in the West Jersey counties of Hunterdon, Sussex and Warren is currently around 40,000 – four years ago, Republican Kim Guadagno won the region by just 26,000.