Stomping Grounds: Monmouth polls on Biden, Murphy, Lt. Governor, and Menendez

New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state.  Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation.  Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made.  They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.

New Jersey Globe: For better or worse, it’s undeniable that we all like to devour polling numbers, so I’d like to focus this week on two Monmouth University polls released this week and ask what they mean for the upcoming legislative elections and 2024.  Let’s start with Joe Biden, who is underwater with a 41%-52% approval rating among registered voters in New Jersey – his lowest showing since taking office.  Those numbers are even worse in Central and South Jersey, which has most of the competitive races.  What does this mean for turnout and election outcomes?

Dan Bryan: President Biden is living two realities – the amount of good work he’s accomplished in his first term, and his stubbornly low favorability in polls. The Biden administration has had amazing accomplishments, from an economy that has cooled inflation and staved off a looming recession, to legislative wins with the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, the CHIPS Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act. By any objective measure, he has exceeded expectations in his first term.

But for some reason, that success has not translated to polling. Those numbers in the context of his successful administration are difficult to understand. In theory, sagging poll numbers going into a difficult election should make Democrats’ work more difficult this November.

But as President Biden likes to say, “Don’t judge me against the almighty, judge me against the alternative.” Republicans have yet to show voters a plan of any substance, choosing to focus instead on vapid culture wars and trying to tear down the actual good work Democrats have done. Voters aren’t stupid, and when presented with an alternative, both in this November and the next, they’ll once again reject the failed politics of the New Jersey GOP.

Alex Wilkes: New Jersey does a pretty good job of insulating itself from the national mood by having sleepy, off-year elections. Still it’s not what I would hope for with VBM ballots being sent in about a month and then needing your base to turn out.

To the extent Biden is hurting Democrats on the ballot this year, I don’t think it’s going to get better. Inflation slowing down still doesn’t change the fact that we’re all paying more for the basics. Gas prices are high and have the potential to spike again (unless, of course, Biden is willing to pull another rabbit out of the SPR for Murphy, like he did in the midterms). The President’s shady business dealings with his son are also not going away — no matter how much the media and Democrats may try to bury it. Most of all, I think Americans have legitimate concerns about the President’s physical ability to hold office, and his continued public incoherence will do little to abate those fears.

NJ Globe: Governor Murphy’s latest approval rating is 50%-40%  (the best of the three statewide elected officials) and midterm elections – back when people paid closer attention to legislative races – used to be tied to the incumbent governor.  Is this race about Phil Murphy?  And is a 50% approval rating good enough to help some Democrats win?

Alex: In 2021, I think voters were willing to give Phil Murphy the benefit of the doubt after his disastrous handling of COVID. I think it also helped that many of his crazy ideas had not yet fully crystallized and that the media and pollsters did not fully reflect the electorate’s souring mood.

Now, I think he has worn down people’s patience with his radical ideas. Need proof? Look no further than recent attempts for top Democrats to distance themselves from some of his policies. I don’t believe that top Democrats like Coughlin, Scutari, Gopal, and Lagana genuinely disagree with Murphy bailing out foreign offshore wind companies or expanding gender identity policies in schools. What I do think is that they’re starting to worry about what voters think now that they know “Energy Master Plan” means phasing out their gas stoves and cars and “Fairer and Stronger” means keeping secrets from parents about their kindergarten-aged children. Voters will hold Democrats accountable for being complicit in these policies even in their silence.

Dan: I don’t think this race is about Governor Murphy, but there’s no doubt that his consistent popularity will help Democrats maintain their advantage in the Legislature. In fact, he has maintained a remarkable amount of popularity and favorability over the past six years, and though it’s gone up and down in the context of external events, the trend line has only gone slowly upward. That is because New Jersey voters know they have a Governor that cares about them, one that truly delivers on his promises, and one that can not only deliver a progressive agenda to uplift families and strengthen the middle class, but one that ignites our economy and provides good paying jobs.

As popular as Governor Murphy is, Democrats in difficult districts are not expecting anything to carry them through November. They are working hard to make the case directly to their voters about the issues they care about, and show the progress they’ve made on improving their voters’ quality of life and making New Jersey more affordable for middle class families. Republicans, in turn, will continue to spread misinformation and latch onto divisive issues, hoping the politics of fear will carry them in the absence of any substantive plan for New Jersey.

NJ Globe: Asked if race and gender should be a factor in filling Sheila Oliver’s seat as lieutenant governor, 83% of New Jersey voters said it shouldn’t.  I know there are political realities that are different from electoral ones, but is this a situation where Governor Murphy shouldn’t pay attention to polling?

Alex:  Governor Murphy should pick the most qualified person for the job, regardless of that person’s race and gender.

Dan: I agree that a candidate’s competence and qualifications should be first and foremost in Governor Murphy’s mind when he appoints his next Lieutenant Governor, and I am also a firm believer that representation in government matters. Those two statements are not in conflict with each other – in fact, ensuring that our government looks like the state which it represents is critical to ensuring effective leadership.

Appointing a diverse candidate does not mean sacrificing quality for competence. It means you tell your team to ensure they include resumes rich in diversity of both background and life experience, rather than the ones at the top of the pile. Governor Murphy has built the most diverse state administration in New Jersey history, and all he’s ended up with is historic accomplishments, consistent popularity and a legacy that will stand up against any governors in our history.

NJ Globe: Monmouth’s approval ratings for Senator Menendez are 36%-45%.  Does that affect Democratic support for his re-election next year – and are these numbers at a point where top-tier Republican challengers begin to look at the race?

Dan: The same poll, by the way, showed Senator Menendez popular among primary voters. Let’s remember, Senator Menendez has been through a tough electoral challenge before. His last election cycle saw a well funded candidate that smelled blood in the water, and ended with a 16 point victory for the incumbent.

Again, let’s judge him not against the almighty, but against the alternative. The Republican brand is toxic among statewide voters in New Jersey, and if Bob Hugin’s $40 million couldn’t unseat Senator Menendez, it’ll be difficult for the New Jersey GOP to make a case that they can take a real run at Senator Menendez in the 2024 general election.

Alex: Senators Menendez and Booker have had quite the ride on our dime. Between them, New Jerseyans have tolerated a federal corruption trial, a folly of a presidential run, and increasingly ridiculous stunts that have deeply embarrassed us — even by the low standards we already have for members of Congress.

I think they have largely gotten a pass here because of the Democrats’ voter registration advantage and Senate’s role in confirming Supreme Court justices. But that built-in blue wall has been crumbling in recent years and abortion policy has been sent back to the states.

We have supported these two men through more of their personal ambitions and problems than any taxpayers should really have to. I can only hope their weakening poll numbers show that there’s room for new candidates in the primary and general to give us the representation we deserve.