Biden job approvals in N.J. hit all-time low, Monmouth poll says

Joe Biden will probably win New Jersey – that’s what Democrats do in reliably blue states by the time Election Day comes– but New Jerseyans don’t think his presidency is going well.

Biden has upside-down approval ratings of 41%-52% among registered voters in New Jersey, according to a new Monmouth University poll released this morning.  Biden was at 46%-48% in a Monmouth poll released in January, and today’s poll marks the lowest approval and disapproval numbers since he took office two and a half years ago.

The drop in Biden’s New Jersey approvals appears to come from an eight-point drop among independents since 2022; he’s now at 29%-61% among independents, something Democratic Senate and Assembly candidates will need to watch as New Jerseyans begin voting next month.

As a point of comparison, Gov. Phil Murphy’s job approvals are at 50%-40%; he’s at 43%-41% among independents.

Biden has no real problems with Democrats: he enjoys an 81%-12% approval rating heading ten months before the New Jersey presidential primary, where his lone opponents are Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Marianne Williamson.

But Biden appears to be struggling with voters of color; his job approvals are 43%-45%.

Perhaps most concerning for Democrats are Biden’s enormously underwater 35%-60% approvals in South Jersey, where they are trying to claw back legislative seats in the 2nd and 3rd districts while working to protect seats in the 4th. This district became more Republican-friendly after redistricting.

In Central Jersey, where State Sens. Vin Gopal (D-Long Branch) and Andrew Zwicker (D-South Brunswick) face tough re-election contests, Biden’s approvals are 40%-52%.  The President is at 44%-47% in North Jersey.

“It’s not just Biden’s rating, which is pretty bad in New Jersey, but the legislature rating has dropped, and Murphy’s net rating is below the statewide 15-point Democratic part “par,” said Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  “(It) makes things tougher for Gopal, decreases chances of retaking 3, and increases chances of losing 4. Could also make Dems nervous in the 16th, after having softened the ground in Manville but now having to introduce themselves in new Republican areas.”

Biden’s underwater job approvals in New Jersey resulted in just one significant loss for Democrats last year: in the 7th district, where Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Ringoes) lost his congressional seat by three points to Republican Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield).    Three other Democratic House members won by double digits, although that had more to do with a favorable outcome in redistricting than with the president’s approvals.

Men don’t care for Biden’s presidency, the Monmouth poll shows.  He’s at 39%-56% among male voters and 43%-48% among women.   Biden is at 40%-55% among white voters and is upside-down among every age group.  Among New Jerseyans with no college degree, he’s at 36%-55%; voters with a four-year degree narrowly (49%-46%) approve of the president.

Privately, New Jersey Democratic leaders don’t dispute a lack of enthusiasm for Biden.

The state’s fourteen electoral votes are not in play.  New Jersey had not backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, when George H.W. Bush carried the state by fourteen points against Democrat Michael Dukakis.  Dukakis won just Essex, Hudson, and Mercer counties.

Despite his longtime ties to New Jersey – as a U.S. Senator from Delaware, he was well-liked in South Jersey—Biden was not the state’s first choice in 2020; all of the top elected officials and every county chair backed favorite son Cory Booker.   He barely received any Garden State support when he ran in 1988 and 2008.

Barack Obama had a 54%-37% approval rating in New Jersey at the same point of his presidency, according to an August 2011 Monmouth poll.  His popularity – and that of the state’s Republican governor, Chris Christie, had little impact on legislative elections that year; Democrats picked up one Assembly seat, and the Senate remained the same.

A June 2003 Quinnipiac University poll put President George W. Bush’s job approvals in New Jersey at 58%-39%, with a 54%-37% lead over his eventual Democratic opponent, John Kerry.  Still, Democrats picked up two Senate and three Assembly seats.   By Election Day 2004, Kerry carried New Jersey by seven points, 53%-46%.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted between August 10-14 with a sample size of 814 adults and a margin of error of +/- 5.4%.