Murphy’s approval at 50%-40% in new Monmouth poll

Gov. Phil Murphy has a job approval rating of 50%-40% among New Jersey’s registered voters as he heads into legislative midterm elections this year, according to a Monmouth University Poll released this morning.

That represents a slight decline in support from Monmouth’s previous polling. In January of this year, Murphy had job approvals of 52%-36% among registered voters; until this month, the last time the governor reached 40% disapproval in a Monmouth poll was in September 2019, before the Covid pandemic reshaped his governorship.

Among Democrats, Murphy maintains abundant support, at 85%-7%. Independents are more evenly split, at 43%-41%; Republicans overwhelmingly disapprove of Murphy, at 12%-83%.

Murphy is strongest in North Jersey, with 54% approval, and about even in Central Jersey at 49%. In South Jersey, however, he only has a 41% approval rating – perhaps a worrying sign for the South Jersey Democratic machine that is trying to regain legislative seats this year.

Asked to assess Murphy’s accomplishments, 33% of respondents said that Murphy has achieved major accomplishments, 39% say he has minor accomplishments, and 27% say he has no real accomplishments. Those numbers are largely unchanged from Monmouth’s January poll.

In addition to accomplishments, the poll asked respondents whether Murphy’s policies have helped or hurt various demographics.

31% of respondents said that they believed the governor’s policies have helped middle-class residents, versus 44% who said his policies have hurt them; for poor residents, the ratio was 36%-32%, and for wealthy residents it was 29%-19%.

Murphy was especially underwater when it came to property tax payers: just 23% of respondents said his policies have helped them, while 49% said they’ve hurt them. The governor has focused heavily on property tax relief since he was re-elected in 2021, supporting the ANCHOR tax relief program last year and the StayNJ senior tax relief program this year – but the message evidently hasn’t sunk in for many voters.

Murphy’s policies got a 26%-20% rating for transit riders, and a 28%-38% rating for businesses.

With all 120 seats in the legislature up for election this year, the poll results may cause some worry for Murphy and legislative Democrats. The fact that Murphy’s policies are viewed as hurting both the middle class and property tax payers could indicate larger political problems for Democrats this year and in 2025.

Monmouth also polled the approval ratings of the state legislature; just 37% of respondents said they approved of the job the legislature was doing, versus 45% who disapproved.

Murphy’s favorables in the Monmouth Poll are similar to approvals in a May Rutgers-Eagleton poll, which had him at 47%-43%, and a May Fairleigh Dickinson University poll which had him at 44%-39%.

In a July 2015 Monmouth poll, Gov. Chris Christie had upside-down job approval ratings of 36%-58%. He was dealing with the fallout of the Bridgegate scandal and seeking the Republican nomination for president at the time. Democrats picked up four Assembly seats in Christie’s midterm election that year.

Gov. Christine Todd Whitman had a 55%-37% approval rating in a July 1999 Quinnipiac poll. She was a candidate for the GOP U.S. Senate nomination at that point and the same poll gave her a 52%-35% lead over former Gov. Jim Florio.  Whitman dropped out of the Senate race in September, and Democrats gained three seats in the Assembly in her second midterm election

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted between August 10 and August 14 with a sample size of 814 adults and a margin of error of +/- 5.4%.