The battle for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes has tightened to a four-point race, meaning that South Jerseyans living in the Philadelphia TV market will see a bombardment of political ads over the next 62 days.
A Monmouth University Poll released this morning shows Joe Biden with a 49%-45% lead over Donald Trump in the race for president among registered voters, down from a 53%-40% lead in mid-July.
Among high likely voters, Biden’s lead is now 49%-46%, and he’s ahead 48%-47% among low likely voters. All groups are within the +/- 4.9% margin of error.
“This is really a game of inches. The Trump campaign is looking to peel off a little bit of Biden support here and a little bit there,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “It may be working, despite the fact that Pennsylvania voters personally like the Democrat more, although this gap has narrowed.”
Among the New Jersey voters who will see the onslaught of Trump and Biden ads are those who live in the 2nd and 3rd congressional districts – two of the state’s most closely watched House races.
Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis) faces Democrat Amy Kennedy in the 2nd, which Trump carried 50%-46%. In the 3rd, Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) faces businessman David Richter in a district Trump won 51%-45%.
Among registered voters in Pennsylvania, 42% are certain or very likely to vote for Trump; 45% are certain or very likely to move for Biden.
Trump carried Pennsylvania 44,292 votes over Hillary Clinton in 2016, 48.17% to 47.46%.
The Monmouth poll also shows races for Pennsylvania State Treasurer and Auditor General to be within the margin of error. State Attorney General Josh Shapiro had a 10-point lead over Republican Heather Heidelbaugh. South Jersey voters will see these ads as well.
“Pennsylvania Democrats bucked the trend in 2016 by winning three statewide offices while losing federal races for president and U.S. Senate,” said Murray. “And it looks like they might outperform the top of the ticket again this year.”
The poll was conducted by telephone from August 28-31 with a sample size of 400 registered voters in Pennsylvania.MonmouthPoll_PA_090220 (1)_Redacted