Monmouth Poll has Biden up by 7 points in Pennsylvania

Joe Biden is holding his lead in next-door Pennsylvania with a 51%-44% margin over Donald Trump, according to a Monmouth University poll released this morning.

Biden’s 7-point lead comes under a high voter turnout model, but the race narrows to 5-points, 50%-4% in a low turnout model.

“All eyes have been on the Keystone State from the start. Pennsylvania voters may have responded more than most to key events, such as the conventions and the debates. This potential for movement is one reason why both campaigns have spent so much time there,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The Monmouth poll shows Pennsylvania narrowing for Biden, who had a 54%-43% lead in the high turnout model and 53%-45% in a low turnout in early October.

“Northeast Pennsylvania and other swing areas of the state are as hotly contested as they were four years ago,” Murray said.  “Even without an advantage in this region, Biden is able to hold a statewide lead on the back of strong support in core blue areas along with his ability to nibble away at Trump’s margins in deep red areas.”

Trump’s favorables are at 42%-49% in Pennsylvania, while Biden is at 46%-45%.

Polls released on Sunday saw Trump and Biden statistically tied in Florida and Georgia, but with the president narrowly ahead in North Carolina and Biden still up front in Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona.

An Iowa Poll sponsored by the Des Moines Register  showed independents breaking to Trump, who now leads Biden by 7 points, 48%-41%.