Spiller in second place in Dem governor primary behind Sherrill, per NJEA PAC’s poll

Garden State Forward, a super PAC affiliated with the New Jersey Education Association (NJEA), is out with a new poll of the 2025 Democratic gubernatorial primary that finds its preferred candidate, NJEA President and former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller, claiming second place in a splintered field.

According to the poll, conducted by the pollster GBAO, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leads the pack to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy with 20% of the vote; Sherrill has led every publicly released poll of the race thus far. Spiller is in second with 15%, and just behind Spiller is Newark Mayor Ras Baraka at 14%; they’re followed by Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop at 10%, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly) at 9%, and former State Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-West Deptford) at 8%.

That represents a substantial gain for Spiller compared to two prior Garden State Forward polls, both of which had not been publicly released: one from July 2024 that put Spiller at 3%, and another from November 2024 that put him at 7%. (None of the other five candidates saw huge swings in support between last summer and now.)

“Spiller has seen the most significant growth among the candidates, more than doubling his support since November 2024,” the polling memo states. “His rising name recognition and increased visibility have had a positive impact on voters, positioning him as a strong contender.”

Spiller is also the best-known candidate in the field by a hair, with 68% of the electorate having heard of him – likely the result of an NJEA-affiliated super PAC’s ongoing $35 million effort to boost his candidacy, an investment that may far outstrip anything any other candidate is able to put into the race. Sweeney has 66% name recognition, Baraka has 64%, Gottheimer has 63%, Sherrill has 62%, and Fulop has 58%.

But Spiller’s net favorability ratings aren’t as high as those of two of his opponents. He scores a +23 rating (34% favorable, 11% unfavorable), behind Sherrill’s +32 (40%-8%) and Baraka’s +28 (36%-8%). Fulop is at +19 (29%-10%), Gottheimer is at +11 (27%-16%), and Sweeney is the lone underwater candidate in the field at -2 (22%-24%). 

Garden State Forward’s poll is the eighth publicly released poll of the Democratic gubernatorial field, and all eight polls have agreed on the race’s leader – Sherrill – but they’ve frequently disagreed on who might be positioned to take her down. Two polls from Baraka and his affiliated PAC both found him in a relatively close second place, while an internal poll from a pro-Sherrill labor union gave her a double-digit lead over the rest of the field. And a January poll from a different pro-Spiller PAC, Working New Jersey, also put Spiller in second place with 11% (behind Sherrill’s 16%). 

The lone independent poll of the race, from Emerson College, found Sherrill with a small lead but no candidate breaking 10% of the vote, leaving the race wide open. A high rate of undecided voters has been consistent across every poll, though that may be starting to change; Garden State Forward’s poll found only 23% of voters without an expressed preference, a potential sign that the campaign is starting to break through for voters with three months left to go.

GBAO’s poll was conducted on behalf of Garden State Forward, a super PAC affiliated with the New Jersey Education Association, between February 27 and March 3 with a sample size of 800 likely Democratic primary voters and a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.