Internal poll shows Sherrill with double-digit lead in Democratic primary

A new internal poll conducted by a labor union supporting Rep. Mikie Sherrill shows a double-digit advantage for her over the rest of the Democratic field in a primary election less than six months away.

The poll of likely Democratic primary voters, conducted by Democratic pollster Upswing Research & Strategy on behalf of the Laborers’ International Union of North America, shows Sherrill leading her next-closest opponent in the six-candidate field, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, 25%-13%.

Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly) is at 10%, former state Senate President Steve Sweeney and Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop each got 8%, and former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller, the president of the New Jersey Education Association, received 7%.

The poll found 30% of respondents were undecided in the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy.

The union’s internal poll is the first to be released since the Democratic field has crystallized; Sherrill and Gottheimer joined the race this past month after securing re-election to Congress in November. The poll was conducted Nov. 23-27, the week after Sherrill announced her candidacy and when her launch and media blitz was in full swing.

The statewide name identification among likely Democratic primary voters for Sherrill and Sweeney is at 52%, with Baraka at 49% and Gottheimer at 44%, but Sherrill posted the strongest net favorability rating among that group at +35%.

Sherrill’s ratings are at 39% favorable to 4% unfavorable; Baraka is at 28%-8%; Gottheimer at 24%-8%; Fulop at 18%-7%; Spiller at 15%-9%; and Sweeney at 17%-18%.

“Sherrill doesn’t lead simply because she has the highest name recognition; she leads because the voters who know her like her better than the voters who know the other candidates,” the polling memo states. “For example, among voters who have a favorable impression of Gottheimer, Sherrill actually splits those voters with Gottheimer, 34%-32%.”

Sherrill’s efforts at improving her name ID are evident: she launched a seven-figure ad buy in her noncompetitive congressional race this fall, televising spots that didn’t feature the words “Congress,” “2024,” or “re-election.” Gottheimer has also spent congressional campaign money on generic ads. A PAC affiliated with the New Jersey Education Association, which Spiller leads, has also spent significant sums on boosting his name ID.

The polling memo said Sherrill’s advantage is widespread; the pro-Sherrill memo said the congresswoman enjoyed similar leads among men and women while also leading strongly in North Jersey’s “outer” suburban counties. The memo said the congresswoman beats Gottheimer, a centrist Democrat, among moderate voters.

In North Jersey’s “inner” suburban counties, where Baraka, Gottheimer, and Fulop hold office, the memo says Sherrill essentially ties Baraka and leads Gottheimer and Fulop.

Sherrill’s lead is in line with other polls conducted for the primary. A July poll conducted by a super PAC supporting Baraka found Sherrill and Baraka leading the field in terms of name ID, and an April poll conducted by a PAC with ties to Sherrill showed Sherrill and Baraka leading the race.

The name ID of all six Democratic candidates is higher than Murphy’s was in a December 2016 Quinnipiac University poll; Murphy was at 15%-4% among Democrats two months after essentially locking up party support for the nomination.

The Upswing Research & Strategy poll was conducted Nov. 23-27 on behalf of the Laborers’ International Union of North America, which has endorsed Rep. Mikie Sherrill. The poll was composed of a sample of 803 likely primary voters and a margin of error of +/- 3.46%.