Sherrill leads Ciattarelli by eight points in FDU poll

Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) holds an 8-point lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the race for the New Jersey governorship, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) poll released Tuesday morning.

Sherrill leads the poll of likely voters 45%-37%, with 16% undecided and 3% saying they’ll vote for someone else. The results show that after fractious primaries, the candidates have largely consolidated support within their party.

Despite not receiving an endorsement from Bill Spadea, his top opponent in the primary, Ciattarelli is still winning Republican voters 86%-5%. And Sherrill, who hasn’t gotten formal endorsements from several of her Democratic opponents, holds an 87%-2% grip on Democrats.

That leaves independents, who said they support Sherrill 30%-23%, with 41% undecided. Dan Cassino, the poll’s executive director, said the poll shows partisan loyalty is in full swing in Jersey and that Ciattarelli will need a strong performance among independents to overcome the inherent Democratic advantage in a blue-leaning state.

“Unless something goes horribly awry, partisans are going to vote for their party’s candidate,” Cassino said. “While Republicans have been narrowing the gap, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in the state, and Ciattarelli needs to start pulling in more independents and Democrats if he wants to win.”

The nominees are looking to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. No party has won the New Jersey governorship for three consecutive terms since the 1960s; Sherrill is hoping to break that streak come November.

The FDU poll is the second independent poll of the gubernatorial race since Sherrill and Ciattarelli won their respective primaries. A Rutgers-Eagleton poll last month showed Sherrill with a 20-point lead. Polling struggled in 2021, when Murphy defeated Ciattarelli by about 3 points despite several polls putting the governor up by double digits.

Independents, a plurality of whom are undecided, also occasionally switched allegiances when asked about different topics. Ciattarelli gained 7 points among independents who received questions about New Jersey-focused topics, but he lost 4 points among independents who heard questions on national topics. Sherrill lost 2 points among independents who heard Jersey-focused questions and gained 1 point among independents who received questions about national issues.

Those results came from an experiment Cassino performed. After giving their initial preference for governor, voters were split into two groups: one group received a series of questions about local issues like energy, flooding, and NJ Transit, while the other group received questions about national topics like President Donald Trump and immigration. After hearing those questions, the respondents were asked about their preference for governor again. As expected, essentially all Democrats and Republicans stuck with their initial pick, but independents showed some movement.

The findings are in line with how the candidates have behaved, showing the FDU poll could be consistent with their internal polls. Sherrill has criticized Ciattarelli for his recent embrace of Trump — the Republican received the president’s endorsement during the GOP primary — while Ciattarelli has sought to tie Sherrill to the incumbent, dubbing her “Murphy 2.0.”

“There’s a reason why Ciattarelli is focusing so much on local issues, and trying not to talk about President Trump,” Cassino said. “The more nationalized this race is, the worse Ciattarelli does overall, even as it helps him a bit among Republicans.”

The FDU poll was conducted July 17-23 with a sample size of 806 likely voters and a margin of error of +/- 3.4%.