27% of VBMs have been returned; Democrats have 3-1 edge in six key districts

Eighteen days before the midterm elections, Democrats are maintaining a 3-1 advantage in returned vote-by-mail ballots in six of the nine potentially competitive legislative districts in New Jersey, according to an analysis by Associated Press election researcher Ryan Dubicki.

New Jerseyans have already cast 253,226 votes, with 27% of the 932,984 mail-in ballots sent out by county clerks since September 23 already returned.   That means roughly one in seven voters (14.4%) have proactively requested vote-by-mail ballots.

Voter turnout so far is at 4% statewide, a healthy advance voting number in a cycle that drew 27% statewide by Election Day.

But in four key legislative districts, advance voting is higher than the state average: 5.8% in District 3, 7.1% in District 4, 4.6% in District 11, and 5.8% in District 16.

In the 3rd district, 40% of all VBMs have been returned, with Democrats holding a 69%-20% advantage.

Democrats have a 68%-21% advantage in District 4, where 34% of mail-in ballots have already come back.

In the hotly-contested 11th district, 35% of VBMs are back; 67% are from Democrats and 35% from Republicans.

The 16th district race has attracted a return rate of 29% of mail-in ballots, with Democrats enjoying a 64%-29% edge.

Democrats have a 68%-18% advantage in the 38th district and a 67%-20% edge in the 14th.

In District 2, Democrats make up 65% of the returned ballots, with 25% for the Republicans, and in the 8th district, there’s an edge for Democrats of 63%-27%.

The only possibly competitive district where Republicans are outpacing Democrats is the 30th, where the GOP leads 42%-40%.