The math of a Ciattarelli victory

Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli is an underdog to win tonight. His opponent, Gov. Phil Murphy, has a massive state apparatus; he’s been heavily outspent by Murphy and his allies; and he’s running as a Republican in a state President Joe Biden won by 16 points.

But what would it look like if he does win?

Twelve years ago, former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie pulled off a similar feat against Gov. Jon Corzine after Corzine’s approval ratings had plummeted and polls had shown a neck-and-neck race. A lot has changed in New Jersey politics over the last twelve years, but Christie’s winning map could still provide a template for a Ciattarelli victory this year.

Monmouth and Ocean: The red behemoths

By far the two most important counties to Christie’s victory were the two that comprise the heart of the Jersey Shore: Monmouth and Ocean Counties.

Each gave Christie a more-than-30-point victory; he won Monmouth 62-31% and Ocean 66-28%. Even more critical was the sheer number of votes he got from the two counties. Combined, they gave Christie a margin of 134,844 votes – enough to drown out the 123,655 votes Corzine netted from Essex and Hudson Counties, the state’s bluest.

Getting gargantuan majorities from the Shore will be similarly crucial for Ciattarelli. That may be easier said than done, however. Murphy only lost Monmouth County, his home county, by 12 points in 2017 (and Biden only lost it by three points last year), while the Lakewood Vaad’s endorsement of Murphy could hinder Ciattarelli in Ocean County’s largest municipality.

Even still, this is likely the easiest part of Christie’s 2009 coalition for Ciattarelli to replicate. He’ll almost certainly come away victorious in the two counties; the question will be, by how much.

Essex and Hudson: The blue wall

The counterweights to Monmouth and Ocean Counties in a statewide tally are Essex and Hudson Counties, which contain Newark and Jersey City respectively and deliver huge margins for Democrats every year.

It’s not a mystery, then, whether Ciattarelli can win in either; Christie didn’t even come close in 2009. What’s instead most important is whether Democrats actually show up to vote in force.

Even though it had 200,000 fewer residents at the time, Ocean County cast slightly more votes than Essex County in 2009, 189,022 to 182,477. Monmouth and Hudson Counties had approximately the same population, but Monmouth had nearly twice as many voters turn out: 207,321 to 118,192.

Ciattarelli is certainly hoping a similar situation plays out today. And it could, but the problem for the Ciattarelli campaign is that they fundamentally have no control over whether Democrats turn out to vote. If Murphy is successful at energizing his own voters in urban North Jersey, it’s likely game over for Ciattarelli no matter what else he accomplishes.

Morris and Somerset: Ciattarelli’s home turf

One area where Ciattarelli seems extremely unlikely to match Christie’s numbers is, ironically, in Ciattarelli’s home turf. Morris County backed Christie by nearly 30 points, and Somerset – where Ciattarelli is from – did so by 22 points, giving Christie a sizable cushion of 69,891 votes.

But arguably no place in New Jersey has changed faster than the two suburban counties, which backed Joe Biden by four and 20 points, respectively. Even Murphy was able to win Somerset County four years ago, albeit by only two points.

Given how much the two counties have changed, it’s simply no longer realistic to expect Ciattarelli to net tens upon tens of thousands of votes from them, even if he does manage to win one or both. That reality means that he’ll have to find extra votes somewhere else, somewhere even Christie couldn’t.

South Jersey: The land of opportunity 

If suburban North Jersey is racing leftwards, much of South Jersey is doing the opposite, with Cumberland, Gloucester, and Salem Counties shifting towards Republicans like Donald Trump after years of heartily supporting Democrats.

In 2009, Christie won every county in South Jersey except two, Camden and Cumberland. He won Atlantic County by four points and Burlington County by two – both of which usually favor Democrats.

Ciattarelli may come close to replicating that feat. Winning Burlington County outright is likely a bridge too far, but Ciattarelli has run probably the most South Jersey-focused gubernatorial campaign in recent history, and the trends in most South Jersey counties are in his favor.

The problem is, just replicating Christie’s numbers won’t be enough. If Ciattarelli isn’t able to match Christie in Morris, Somerset, and other suburban counties, places like Gloucester and Salem are where he’ll need to make up a lot of ground – an especially challenging task given how much smaller most South Jersey counties are compared to the rest of the state.

Overall, is a Ciattarelli victory impossible? Far from it. But as a county-level analysis shows, Ciattarelli needs to thread the needle in several very different places, while also overcoming factors outside of his control like Democratic turnout.

The simple partisan math of New Jersey gives any Republican statewide campaign a large number of obstacles to overcome. After a difficult campaign, Christie found his narrow path – but Ciattarelli will have to find an even tougher path to win today.