Spadea gaining in name ID among GOP primary voters, internal poll shows

A December internal poll commissioned by Bill Spadea’s top strategist shows the conservative radio host with increasing favorables, a lead in Ocean County against rival Jack Ciattarelli, the opposite in Morris County, and a statistical dead heat in Monmouth.

The poll shows that while Ciattarelli’s favorable-to-negative ratio has been cut almost in half since February 2023, Spadea’s has nearly doubled in the opposite positive direction, according to Bill Stepien, Spadea’s campaign advisor.

But the polling memorandum stops short of sharing head-to-head poll numbers between Spadea, Ciattarelli, State Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Westfield), and former State Sen. Ed Durr (R-Logan).

Spadea now has favorables of 40%-12%, up from 22%-11% in the first poll 22 months ago; Ciattarelli is at 56%-20%, down from 64%-12% in February 2023, fifteen months after he came within three percentage points of ousting Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021.

“Over the course of three polls conducted over the last 22 months, Spadea’s name ID has steadily increased with each poll. Notably, Spadea’s favorable image ratings – and in particular, his ‘strong’ favorable image ratings – have increased significantly,” Stepien stated.  “Spadea’s positive growth has not been met with any growth of his unfavorable image and the growth has occurred with minimal advertising spend to fuel the increase.”

Stepien said Ciattarelli’s “imagine is stuck in neutral” and unknown among one in four GOP primary voters after two statewide campaigns.

“Notably, with each poll, Ciattarelli’s favorable image ratings have decreased while his negative image ratings have increased,” said Stepien. “Despite having never run for statewide office, Spadea’s ‘very favorable’ image rating is statistically tied with (Ciattarelli).”

The poll memo released head-to-head numbers in the top three GOP counties: Monmouth, Morris, and Ocean; the three counties represent over 30% of the total number of registered Republicans in New Jersey.

Monmouth shows Spadea at 38% and Ciattarelli at 37%, with Durr at 3% and Bramnick at 1%, with 22% undecided.

Ciattarelli has a 39%-22% lead over Spadea in Morris County, with Bramnick at 5% and Durr at 2%.

In Ocean County, Spadea has a double-digit lead over Ciattarelli. 38%-28%, with Durr at 4% and Bramnick at 3%.

The poll was conducted for Stepien Strategic Partners between December 7-10 with a sample size of 920 likely Republican primary voters and a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.