Sherrill internal poll shows her maintaining healthy lead in Dem gov primary

Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair)’s campaign is touting a new internal poll that shows something similar to what her opponents’ polls have been showing for months: she’s in the lead in the six-way Democratic primary for governor.

The Global Strategy Group poll puts Sherrill at 25% of the vote, substantially ahead of her next-closest competitor, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly), who has 15%. Behind them are Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, both with 13%; New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller with 12%; and former State Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-West Deptford) with 6%.

The poll also finds Sherrill’s favorables to be the highest in the field: she’s at 42% favorable to 9% unfavorable, while the next-best ratio is Fulop’s 35%-11%. Baraka is at 35%-12%, Gottheimer is at 34%-18%, Spiller is at 30%-14%, and Sweeney – as he often has been in polls of the primary field – is the lone candidate with an underwater rating, at 19%-26%.

None of those results are tremendously different from the last time that GSG, Sherrill’s pollster, looked at the race; a December 2024 GSG poll found Sherrill with a lead of 24% to 11% over Sweeney.

But as Sherrill’s polling memo pointed out, it’s notable that Sherrill has been able to maintain her sizable lead even after many of her opponents deployed millions of dollars promoting their own campaigns and raising their name recognition.

According to the memo, Spiller, Gottheimer, and Fulop have already benefited from $16 million, $14.2 million, and $10.7 million in TV and digital spending from their campaigns and allied super PACs. Sherrill and her super PAC, by contrast, have only spent $120,000 on paid communications thus far, accounting for one-one hundredth of total primary spending, per the polling memo (though that’s not counting the millions she spent during her 2024 congressional re-election campaign on ads boosting her profile).

The spending data cited by the memo was not able to be independently verified by the New Jersey Globe, nor does it include some money spent on more analog forms of campaigning, such as mailers or canvassing.

“Despite months of opponent spending by five other candidates, Mikie has continued to lead in all public polling – including in our most recent poll,” the memo states. “Not only have our opponents failed to persuade voters with millions in spending but Mikie’s base remains loyal, thanks to her lifetime of service to country and New Jersey and years of winning competitive races which have resulted in high name ID and strong favorability rating.”

The poll is the twelfth internal poll to be released so far of the Democratic gubernatorial primary; Spiller, Baraka, and Fulop and their allies have all released multiple prior polls of the field as well. Every single one of them has found Sherrill with a lead, though they frequently disagree on how big that lead is or who’s in second place behind the congresswoman.

There’s only been one independent poll of the race, a January poll from Emerson College, and it also put Sherrill in the lead, albeit with just 10% support (a whopping 56% of respondents to the poll, which was conducted before many of the candidates began spending money in earnest, were undecided).

With a multi-way primary for the Republican nomination also underway, it also remains a mystery for now what the general election landscape will look like, and there’s been no publicly released polling yet of hypothetical general election matchups. Today’s memo, though, promoted Sherrill – a four-term congresswoman and Navy veteran who flipped a GOP seat in 2018 – as the strongest candidate Democrats could field.

“It is critical that the Democratic nominee is a candidate who can not only energize the base but also win over unaffiliated voters and moderate Republicans,” the memo states. “New Jersey is a must-win state in 2025 and Mikie is the candidate who can ensure it remains blue and a bulwark against Trump, Musk, and MAGA Republicans.”

The Global Strategy Group poll was conducted from April 6-8 with a sample size of 600 likely Democratic primary voters; Sherrill’s memo did not cite a margin of error.