An internal poll conducted for Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly) shows him surging in his bid to win the Democratic primary for governor and puts him five points behind the leading candidate, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), among likely Democratic primary voters in a contest that remains close.
Sherrill leads Gottheimer, 19%-14%, with two other Democrats in a statistical dead heat with Gottheimer for second place: Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop is at 13%, and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is at 11%. Trailing: New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller (11%) and former Senate President Steve Sweeney (5%).
According to the pollster, Sherrill (18%), Baraka (17%), and Fulop (16%) are “deadlocked” in Essex County; in the combined region of Essex, Hudson and Union, the three are also statistically tied: Sherrill at 18%, Baraka at 17%, and Fulop (16%). Among white liberals, Sherrill leads Fulop, 25%-21%; according to Gottheimer’s pollster.
“The race is wide open, and Gottheimer’s message is working,” his pollster said. “Still significant number of undecided voters – and those Democrats like Gottheimer’s message.”
The memo said that Gottheimer is making “significant progress” and that his message resonates with “white working-class voters, less ideologically liberal voters, Latinos, Asians, Jewish voters, and in South Jersey.” It says that Fulop has narrowed Sherrill’s lead among white liberal Democrats from 24%-10% to 25%-21%.
The poll was conducted by Global Strategy Group, which is also Sherrill’s pollster, and was obtained by the New Jersey Globe from a Gottheimer donor who received a polling memo. And the poll was in the field from April 1-3; since then, millions of dollars have been spent by the six candidates.
The poll had a sample size of 900 likely Democratic primary voters and has a margin of error of +/-3%.
“The Gottheimer campaign’s focus on economic issues and affordability – specifically its tax cuts and lower costs message – is working, is of the moment, and will help him punch through in a race for governor that is now up for grabs (especially true among undecided voters, who are very cost and tax sensitive),” the polling memo stated. “He is the only candidate with a Tax Cut Plan, and meeting the moment with the voters who have been very clear about their desire to take on Trump and his cost-increasing insanity.”
Sherrill’s internal poll – in the field April 6-8 — had her ahead by ten points, 25%-15%, over Gottheimer, with Fulop and Baraka at 13%.
