Ciattarelli far ahead of Spadea in GOP gubernatorial primary, per his internal poll

Should Jack Ciattarelli be considered the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for New Jersey governor this year? A new internal poll from Ciattarelli’s campaign argues that the answer is very strongly yes.

The poll, conducted by National Research Inc., finds Ciattarelli at 50% among likely Republican primary voters, while his chief opponent, radio host Bill Spadea, is at 22%. State Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Westfield) is at 9%, former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac is at 3%, and 14% of voters are undecided. (An obscure fifth candidate, Justin Barbera, was not included in the survey.)

That’s an improvement for Ciattarelli over a previous unreleased poll from February, which put him up over Spadea by a 41% to 22% margin; Ciattarelli has added nine points to his support since then, while the polling memo argues Spadea’s support is “stuck in place.”

Ciattarelli, who has the most money of anyone in the Republican field and who likely still has lingering goodwill from his near-miss 2021 campaign against Gov. Phil Murphy, also commands a favorability rating of 67% favorable, 16% unfavorable, while Spadea’s ratio is a more muddled 37% to 28%.

And perhaps most importantly, respondents to the poll said by a 46% to 25% margin that Ciattarelli is more pro-Trump than Spadea – a finding that undermines a core part of Spadea’s campaign. Ciattarelli was an unabashed Trump skeptic during the president’s early time in politics, but he’s since transformed into an enthusiastic Trump backer, and – per his poll – GOP voters have gone along with it despite Spadea’s protestations.

Of course, that could change if Trump were to endorse Spadea or another candidate in the race. But Ciattarelli has made his peace with the president – the two men spoke at Bedminster in March – and veteran Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway, who is helping to run a pro-Ciattarelli super PAC, said last week that she predicts Trump will eventually back Ciattarelli.

Conway’s super PAC, Kitchen Table Conservatives, has released two polls (one in June 2024 and the other in February 2025) that also found Ciattarelli with a formidable lead, and one independent poll from Emerson College put Ciattarelli up 26% to 13% over Spadea. Spadea himself has not released any contrary head-to-head numbers, though an internal poll from January did find him gaining ground in name recognition.

The Democratic field to replace the term-limited Murphy is also heavily contested, with six candidates duking it out (and releasing their own sets of dueling internal polls). Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) has led in each of those polls by varying margins, but the race remains highly unsettled.

Whichever two candidates emerge from their respective primaries, though, Republicans have a challenging road ahead of them to flip the governor’s office while Trump, whose poll numbers have recently started to dive downwards, sits in the White House. But that, too, is a key part of Ciattarelli’s argument: per his poll today, voters believe by a 59% to 19% margin that he, rather than Spadea, would have “the best chance to win the general” against Democrats.

The National Research Inc. poll was conducted from April 8-10 with a sample size of 600 likely Republican primary voters and a margin of error of +/- 4%.