Ciattarelli has 29-point lead, internal poll from his super PAC says

An internal poll conducted by a Jack Ciattarelli-aligned super PAC, Kitchen Table Conservatives, shows little movement in the Republican gubernatorial race over the last eight months, with Ciattarelli holding a 42%-13% lead over Bill Spadea among GOP primary voters in the race for governor, with Jon Bramnick at 4%, and Ed Durr and Mario Kranjac each at 2%.

Kellyanne Conaway’s firm conducted the poll; she serves on the Kitchen Table Conservatives board.

Over one-third of Republicans (35%) are still undecided.

A former assemblyman making his third run for governor, Ciattarelli is the best-known candidate in the field.

Ciattarelli’s favorables are 53%-9%, and Spadea is 26%-20%.  Bramnick is at 12%-8%.

“Four months out, following the first debate, the polling reflects the race we’ve seen across endorsements, fundraising, and other campaign activities. Jack Ciattarelli maintains a big lead, and Bill Spadea fails to gain any traction,” a polling memo stated.  “After seven months of campaigning, Spadea remains in the teens, at 13%.”

Donald Trump has favorables among New Jersey Republicans of 90%-9%, astronomical numbers that have remained largely steady since a June 2024 poll.

Former Gov. Chris Christie remains overwhelmingly unpopular among Republicans in his home state, with upside-down favorables of 28%-65%.

Almost two-thirds of GOP primary voters (65%) said they would be more likely to vote for a gubernatorial candidate if they had Trump’s endorsement, while just 9% would be less likely and 25% said it would make no difference.

And 75% of New Jersey Republicans indicated that they would prefer to nominate an America First, Trump-like candidate for governor, while 15% want a traditional, establishment candidate, and 7% favor a moderate, anti-Trump Republican.

The super PAC, which was formed to limit Spadea’s ability to increase his popularity among Republican primary voters, tested a series of questions designed to increase his negatives: 67% less likely to vote for him when they learned he once said, “President Trump failed. I don’t want him to run again… it is time for new blood;’ 72% less likely when told that Spadea told Republicans not to vote in the 2021 governor’s race; 62% less likely when advised that Spadea once said, “I am a little more liberal than my conservative friends. I do believe in amnesty. I do believe in a pathway to citizenship;” and 63% were less likely to back him after finding out that he urged people to contribute to Christie so that he could make the presidential debate stage.

After that series of questions, 54% of Republican primary voters viewed Spadea as the establishment candidate and just 7% identified him as a pro-Trump, MAGA candidate.

A Kitchen Table Conservatives poll conducted in June put Ciattarelli’s lead at 33 points over Spadea, the NJ 101.5 radio host, 44%-11%, with 3% for Durr and 2% for Bramnick; 36% of Republicans were undecided.

Last June, Ciattarelli’s had favorables of 47%-26%, Spadea was at 20%-8%, and Bramnick at 8%-4%.

Kitchen Table Conservatives have already spent $215,005 – mostly on anti-Spadea ads – and had $370,315 cash-on-hand as of the end of 2024, according to reports filed with the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission.

The KAConsulting poll was conducted on February 5-7 with a sample size of 600 and a margin of error of +/- 4%.