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Sen. Bob Menendez. (Photo: Kevin Sanders for New Jersey Globe)

Sabato: NJ Senate race still likely Democrat

Race rating unchanged

By Nikita Biryukov, September 06 2018 10:33 am

Sabato’s Crystal Ball race ratings kept the race for U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez’s seat at likely Democrat on Thursday, suggesting that while Bob Hugin has a path to victory, that path is no walk in the park.

“In a Democratic state in a Democratic environment, the incumbent has the easier path to 50%,” Kyle Kondik, the group’s managing editor, wrote.

Still, Kondik thinks that the state’s senate race will eat up at least some Democratic resources, especially given the way Hugin is spending money.

The race rater kept the rating level despite a recent Quinnipiac poll that showed significant tightening in the race because a Democratic incumbent has a much easier time winning 50% of the votes in a blue state, especially given the expected turnout surge in November.

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