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Rep. Leonard Lance (R-Clinton)

Lance has narrow lead among voters age 50+, poll says

Incumbent Republican leads Malinowski by 3 points in AARP poll

By Nikita Biryukov, October 19 2018 10:11 am

Rep. Leonard Lance (R-Clinton) has a 38%-35% lead over Democrat Tom Malinowski among voters over 50 years of age in his close first election since winning the seat in 2008, according to a poll conducted by the American Association for Retired Persons (AARP).

Green party candidate Diane Moxley had the support of 1% of the respondents. Freedom, Responsibility, Action candidate Gregg Mele was backed by 2% of the same.

In New Jersey, voters tend to skew Republican as they get older. The opposite is true of young voters, who tend to cast ballots for Democrats.

This is good news for Malinowski, a former Assistant U.S. Secretary of State who is seeking to become the first Democrat to capture this House seat since 1954.

At 43%-46%, President Donald Trump had a slightly upside-down approval rating in the district. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the district 49%-47.5%.

More than half of the voters polled disapproved of how Republicans were doing in Congress – 55% said they disapproved while only 27% approved.

Though those numbers aren’t great, they still beat out elderly voters’ opinions on Democrats. The approval rating of Malinowski’s party was deep underwater, 22%-58%.

The poll was conducted by Alan Newman Research. It has a sample size of 606, 31% of whom were contacted on their cell phones while 68% were reached on landlines. Respondents were screened to make sure they were 50 or older and registered to vote. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

2018-mid-term-election-voter-survey-new-jersey-cd7-questionnaire.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00245.036
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