Kim is first Democrat to win his seat twice in 160 years

Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) has become the first Burlington County Democrat to win re-election to Congress since John Stratton won a second term in 1860, securing one of the most heavily-Republican House seats in New Jersey over the last 164 years.

Kim leads Republican David Richter by 31,847 votes – about eight times his 2018 margin of 3,973 when unseated two-term GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur.

That’s not a final number since some vote-by-mail ballots are still arriving today and provisional ballots have not been counted, but it’s enough to trigger a concession statement from Richter earlier today.

A former Obama White House staffer, Kim leads Richter by eight points overall 54%-46%.

Kim has a 63%-37% lead in Burlington – right now, his plurality is 58,227 votes.  Richter is ahead in Ocean by 26,380 votes, 57.5%-42.5%.

That means Kim improved his percentage in the Burlington portion of New Jersey’s 3rd district by 3.3 points over his 2018 numbers, and did 4.7 points better in Ocean than he did two years ago.

Comparing presidential election years, Richter finished 12 points behind MacArthur’s 2016 Ocean County performance.  MacArthur won it with 62.6%, while Richter’s percentage was 57.5%.

In 2016, MacArthur took 53.7% of the vote in Burlington.  This year, Richter’s Burlington total was almost 17 points less, 36.9%.

Still, with more votes to come, the 3rd district has already had 398,734 votes cast.  That’s a 23.8% increase in voter turnout over 2016, and a 24.7% increase over 2012.

On Election Day, the 3rd district had 15,257 more Democrats than Republicans.  That represents an increase from 11,951 in 2016 and 9,529 when the current map was drawn for the 2012 election.

Kim is the third Democrat to represent the district since Stratton.

Thomas Ferrell held the seat from 1883 to 1884, and John Adler from 2009 to 2011.  Both lost re-election after a single term in Congress.

Stratton was elected to the House in 1858 and served two terms.  He was not a candidate for re-election in 1862 and was succeeded by another Democrat, George Middleton.

No district that resembles the current 3rd — either with Burlington and/or Ocean — has ever re-elected a Democrat twice.