The first – and possibly only – independent poll of the House contest in New Jersey’s 7th congressional district is out, and it shows a remarkably close race.
The poll, conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute, finds that 46% of registered 7th district voters will definitely or probably vote for incumbent Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), and 44% will definitely or probably vote for his Democratic challenger, Sue Altman. (As has been the case in most recent Monmouth polls, the poll did not test a direct head-to-head between the candidates, instead gauging each of their support levels separately.)
When the field is expanded to include third-party candidates, Kean and Altman settle into a tie with 43% support each, while 6% of respondents said they would opt for another candidate. Two third-party contenders, Libertarian Lana Leguía and Green Andrew Black, are indeed on the ballot, though it would be a surprise if they combine for such a large share of the vote.
Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth Poll, said his poll indicates that both Kean and Altman could be in a position to win depending on how the final three weeks of the campaign break for each of them.
“The level of support for each candidate may be equal right now, but there is more than enough room for one of them to break away,” Murray said. “There is a sizable undecided vote and both candidates have relatively high ceilings for their potential vote share.”
The results of the poll are strikingly similar to two internal Democratic polls that were released last week, one from Altman’s campaign and the other from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Both polls gave Kean a two-point advantage: 47%-45% in one, 50%-48% in the other.
Altman has yet to actually post a lead in any poll – the tie in today’s Monmouth poll is the closest she’s ever gotten – and most national prognosticators consider the race to be leaning towards Kean.
Still, the fact that an independent pollster is corroborating Democrats’ internal numbers is broadly good news for Altman, who has been trying (without luck so far) to get national Democrats to spend on her behalf. Kean has been the beneficiary of nearly $3 million and counting in outside assistance from GOP super PACs, while Democratic PACs have not yet spent a cent on Altman – and recent campaign finance reports show that she’s burning through her own money fast after blanketing the airwaves during September and early October to boost her baseline support.
The Monmouth poll also tested the ongoing presidential race in the 7th district, finding former President Donald Trump with 47% support and Vice President Kamala Harris with 46% support – a result that contains foreboding news for both parties depending on one’s perspective.
For Democrats, the result is alarming because, in 2020, President Joe Biden carried the wealthy, highly educated 7th district by nearly four percentage points over Trump. If Harris is indeed losing significant ground in districts like the 7th, it may mean she’s underperforming Biden by quite a bit in New Jersey overall – and, more importantly, it could be a bad sign for her suburban margins in the swing states that will actually decide the outcome of the election.
But Republicans, while they would be thrilled with that kind of performance from Trump, would prefer Kean to be outrunning the top of the ticket by substantially more. One would think that Kean, a self-described pro-choice moderate Republican, is a much better fit for the 7th district than Trump; if he’s running about even with the former president, as the Monmouth poll suggests, that could spell trouble for him should Harris end up carrying the district.
The Democratic candidate who does best in the 7th district is Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), the party’s nominee for U.S. Senate. 46% of respondents said they’ll probably or definitely vote for Kim, versus just 40% for his Republican opponent, Curtis Bashaw – a result that augurs a potential statewide wipeout for Bashaw.
Back in 2021, Democrats on the state’s Congressional Redistricting Commission deliberately hobbled their own party in the 7th district, redrawing it to be more Republican while shoring up Democratic incumbents in neighboring districts. Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Ringoes), who had flipped the 7th district from the GOP in 2018, was largely left to fend for himself, and he lost to Kean, the former minority leader of the State Senate, by three percentage points.
But as Democrats look to win back control of the House this year, the 7th district has long been seen as an appealing target. Altman, the former director of the progressive New Jersey Working Families Party, emerged as the Democrats’ standard-bearer early this year, and she’s raised $5.2 million to take Kean down. (Kean has raised $5.4 million since the cycle began.)
For the last month and a half, the two candidates have been promoting themselves and pummeling one another on the airwaves in an effort to gain an edge in the closely divided district. Monmouth’s poll finds that the result has been something of a wash: Kean is viewed favorably by 44% of respondents and unfavorably by 40%, while Altman is viewed favorably by 40% and unfavorably by 36%.
On individual issues, though, there are starker differences between the candidates. Substantially more voters say they trust Altman (47%) more than Kean (27%) on the issue of abortion; Kean, however, is more trusted on a variety of other issues like economic growth (47%-38%), crime (47%-38%), immigration (40%-33%), and inflation (41%-37%). (Altman also has a 38%-35% lead on the issue of corruption.)
“Altman’s advantage on abortion far surpasses the edge Kean has on any other issue,” Murray said. “But that’s just one part of the equation. The other part is how many voters are actually motivated by this issue.”
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted from October 10-14 with a sample size of 603 registered New Jersey voters and a margin of error of +/- 4.7%.