The Cook Political Report (CPR), one of the country’s preeminent elections forecasters, considers Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) the favorite for re-election for the first time this cycle.
In the race for New Jersey’s 7th congressional district, the state’s one true swing district, CPR has shifted its race rating from Toss Up to Leans Republican. Democratic challenger Sue Altman could still win, according to CPR analyst Erin Covey, but internal polling data suggests that Kean has an advantage.
“On paper, New Jersey’s 7th is the kind of district where Democrats should be on the rise,” Covey wrote, noting that Joe Biden carried the wealthy, suburban district by four percentage points in 2020. “But [Kean], the son of popular former Gov. Tom Kean and the former minority leader in the state Senate, will be a difficult incumbent to take out. And five weeks out from the election, Democrats aren’t particularly optimistic about their chances here.”
Earlier today, Altman released an internal poll showing her narrowly trailing Kean 47%-45%, arguing that the race was well within reach. Covey, though, wrote today that her poll was “rosier” than other internal polling in the district has been.
“Before either candidate started spending significantly, Democratic and Republican polling showed Kean with a significant lead,” she wrote. “And though Altman has outspent Kean over the past month, polling from both parties shows he continues to have a lead.”
Kean first won the 7th district in 2022, unseating Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Ringoes) by three percentage points after the district had been redrawn to be substantially friendlier to Republicans. Owing to the new lines, CPR rated Malinowski as the underdog throughout the entire 2022 cycle, and the congressman struggled to get outside support from his party in the extremely pricey New York media market.
In that context, Malinowski’s relatively narrow loss was seen as a solid performance, one that presaged tough campaigns ahead for Kean in the Democratic-trending seat. With that in mind, many forecasters like CPR chose to start the 7th district in the toss-up column for 2024 – but Altman’s inability to fully close the gap against Kean in internal polling was enough to prompt today’s ratings change in Kean’s favor.
The question now is whether Democratic outside groups see the race as worth investing in going forward. The two biggest Democratic House PACs, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the House Majority PAC, have not yet spent anything in the 7th district (in contrast to the GOP-affiliated Congressional Leadership Fund, which has spent $1.1 million and counting); Democratic groups do have some pro-Altman investments planned for the last few weeks of the campaign, but that could change at any time.
Still, Altman has been a strong enough fundraiser that she can run a robust campaign even without outside assistance. Altman raised a staggering $2.1 million in the 3rd quarter of 2024, and has raised more than $5 million overall since launching her campaign; Kean has not yet reported his own Q3 fundraising numbers.