As of yesterday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the House Majority PAC (HMP) – the two national groups devoted solely to winning a Democratic majority in the U.S. House – have spent a total of $85 million on winning House seats around the country, from Alaska to North Carolina to Maine. Zero of those dollars have been spent in New Jersey.
That’s increasingly foreboding news for Sue Altman, the Democratic nominee against Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) in New Jersey’s 7th congressional district.
The district is clearly competitive – it’s one of 18 Republican-held districts nationwide that was won by Joe Biden in 2020 – and Altman has been a very strong fundraiser; she’s used her vast resources to narrow Kean’s margin substantially, from a double digit deficit to the mid-single digits in recent internal polls. But she’s seemingly struggled to close the deal against Kean, who has an enduring image in the district as a moderate former state senator and the son of former Gov. Tom Kean Sr.
Outside Democratic groups have made plans to spend in the 7th district in the last few weeks of the campaign, supplementing an ad blitz that Altman has funded on her own over the last month.
Those plans, however, could change at any time, and it’s still possible that Altman ends up getting left by the wayside in the final stretch. The 7th district is located entirely in the pricey New York City media market, meaning that investments there are a calculated risk; the cost of one ad in the 7th district could pay for several ads in other less expensive districts in, say, Iowa or Montana.
Asked whether the DCCC still plans on spending in the race, DCCC spokesperson Aidan Johnson said that his organization remains in close contact with Altman, but he did not guarantee any future investment.
“The DCCC has always viewed this race as highly competitive and has worked directly with Sue Altman and her campaign to unseat obedient MAGA loyalist, Tom Kean Jr.,” Johnson said. “While Kean Jr. continues to hide from his constituents and the press, Sue is building the kind of impressive campaign and grassroots coalition that will help us flip this district and take back the House.”
Republicans, meanwhile, are fully engaged in the race. The Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) has spent more than a million dollars on an ad blasting Altman as a “radical liberal,” with another $3 million scheduled for the next few weeks; Kean has gotten some extra assistance from a PAC led by billionaire Elon Musk as well.
Democrats in the 7th district are still haunted by the fate that befell the district’s last Democratic congressman, former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Ringoes). Malinowski lost to Kean in 2022 after the district was redrawn in Republicans’ favor and national Democratic groups mostly left him to fend for himself; Republican PACs outspent their Democratic counterparts $6.3 million to $2.2 million when all was said and done.
Then again, despite that abandonment, Malinowski came surprisingly close to winning anyways: Kean beat him by just under three percentage points, a smaller victory than many expected. Altman said that she, too, has the ability to beat Kean regardless of how much money is spent against her.
“Kean, Jr. refuses to show up for this district, and voters have noticed,” Altman said in a statement. “While Kean, Jr. has been bought and paid for by extremists and corporate PACs, our campaign is built by real people with the momentum to flip this seat. No amount of money can compete with the hundreds of volunteers who knock doors and make calls for us every day – and no amount of money will ever make me forget where I come from and who I fight for.”
To emphasize that point, Altman released an internal poll earlier this week showing her losing to Kean by just two percentage points, 47%-45%. The poll, which also found a tied presidential race, argued that “Altman still has room for growth, and many voters are not yet aware of Kean’s biggest weaknesses.”
Other internal polls have been less encouraging for Altman, but they still do show a trendline in her direction. Just today, a poll shared with the New Jersey Globe by one independent group that is not directly affiliated with either candidate found Kean up by a little over five points, 51.5%-46%, after their previous poll over the summer gave him a whopping 18-point advantage; their new poll also put Trump ahead in the district 48%-45%, meaning that Kean isn’t outrunning the former president by much.
Another internal Democratic poll from last week, which was relayed to the New Jersey Globe by several sources, put Altman at an eight-point deficit against Kean, an improvement from her thirteen-point deficit earlier in the cycle. Somewhat worryingly for Altman, though, the lines of attack the poll tested against Kean weren’t sufficient to put her in the lead.
All in all, it’s clear that the race remains competitive, and Altman has a path to victory. But she still apparently trails by enough for the Cook Political Report (CPR), one of the country’s top elections forecasters, to shift their race rating in Kean’s favor on Tuesday; they now see the race as leaning towards Republicans rather than a toss-up.
“Before either candidate started spending significantly, Democratic and Republican polling showed Kean with a significant lead,” CPR’s Erin Covey wrote. “And though Altman has outspent Kean over the past month, polling from both parties shows he continues to have a lead.”
The question now is whether Democrats still see Altman as a good enough bet to stick with their plan to spend millions on her behalf. Without their assistance, Altman may struggle to keep up her current pace of ad spending despite her blockbuster fundraising efforts.
Kean’s campaign, for its part, declined to comment for this story. The two candidates are set to meet on Sunday night for their first and only debate of the campaign, hosted by the New Jersey Globe, On New Jersey, and Rider University.