Cook Political Report shifts Gottheimer’s district off the playing field

At the beginning of this cycle, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly)’s 5th congressional district looked like a potential wild-card opportunity for Republicans looking to flip seats. The Bergen County-based district swung sharply to the right last year, supporting Kamala Harris just 50%-48%, and Gottheimer’s then-ongoing campaign for governor meant that there was no guarantee he’d be running for re-election.

The Cook Political Report (CPR), one of the country’s top elections forecasters, no longer sees the 5th district as a particularly plausible battleground race. Gottheimer said on the night he lost the gubernatorial primary that he plans to seek re-election in 2026, and CPR accordingly moved his district off the playing field yesterday, shifting it into the Solid Democrat column.

“The GOP’s only real opening here would have been if Gottheimer emerged from the gubernatorial primary having suffered serious damage to his reputation,” CPR’s Matthew Klein wrote. “That didn’t occur, and this race moves from Likely to Solid Democrat as a result.”

Republicans currently don’t even have a candidate in the race against Gottheimer; Mary Jo Guinchard, who ran for the seat in 2024 and lost by 11 points, had launched a rematch campaign but suspended it last month.

The shift in the 5th district means that CPR currently rates just two out of New Jersey’s twelve 2026 House races as competitive, and both still lean towards the party that currently holds them.

The Paterson-based 9th district, represented by Rep. Nellie Pou (D-North Haledon), narrowly and shockingly voted for Donald Trump last year after having been drawn as a safely Democratic district. But it remains to be seen whether a Republican not named Donald Trump can replicate that feat, and the district’s longtime Democratic roots are keeping it in CPR’s Lean Democrat column for now.

Two Republicans are currently running for the 9th district: Air Force veteran Billy Prempeh, who was the nominee for the same seat the last three cycles, and Clifton Councilwoman Rosie Pino.

In the 7th district, meanwhile, Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) is fighting off a horde of Democrats interested in his seat, which CPR currently rates as “Lean Republican” owing to Kean’s strength as an incumbent and to Trump’s tight win in the district last year.

No fewer than eight Democrats are campaigning for the seat, many of whom have already raised hundreds of thousands of dollars; Klein wrote that while 2024 nominee Sue Altman locked up the nomination fairly early and didn’t face a contested primary, Democrats are more content to let this year’s busy primary play out.

“Last cycle, Altman established an early fundraising lead that helped ward off a crowded field of Democrats. This time, there’s little indication the packed primary will get whittled down,” Klein wrote. “Sources agree that the nomination is wide open with plenty of time for a shakeup, though almost all regard retired Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett as a top contender.”

This story was updated at 4:56 p.m. with edits to Klein’s quote on Altman’s 2024 primary.