Cook Political Report lists governor’s race Lean Democrat

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter released its first rating of New Jersey’s gubernatorial race Friday, listing it Lean Democrat and calling it “about as clear as the Hudson River.” 

Matthew Klein, Cook’s gubernatorial analyst, said the abolition of the county line, Vice President Kamala Harris’ poor performance, and other recent developments in the Garden State make for a race that “more closely resembles the Wild West than the white-collar Northeast.”

The race to succeed ​​Gov. Phil Murphy depends in large part on who Republicans nominate, Klein argues. He wrote the state’s history of electing moderate Republican governors means a “broadly acceptable nominee” could end in victory for Republicans. Klein wrote that Democrats need to focus on turning out working-class Black and Hispanic voters in the off-cycle race.

Klein wrote that President-elect Donald Trump’s first-term behavior will also affect the path of the race — unpopularity similar to 2017 and 2018 could limit the ceiling for Republicans next year.

Six Democrats have so far entered the race: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly), Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, and teachers union leader Sean Spiller.

On the Republican side, candidates include former Assemblyman and nominee Jack Ciattarelli, conservative radio host Bill Spadea, State Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Westfield), and former State Sen. Ed Durr (R-Logan). Conservative podcaster Mike Crispi has also launched an exploratory committee.

Cook listed Virginia, the country’s only other 2025 gubernatorial race, as a Toss Up.