Cook Political Report puts N.J. at ‘Solid Democrat’ in 2024 presidential race

To no one’s surprise, the Cook Political Report (CPR) has rated New Jersey as Solid Democrat in its initial 2024 presidential race ratings, putting the Garden State well outside of the core of competitive states that will decide the election.

Democratic presidential candidates have won New Jersey by double digits in all four of the most recent elections. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by 16 points in New Jersey, a similar margin to those achieved by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama before him.

The last time that CPR appears to have put New Jersey in a somewhat competitive column was 2004, when it was rated as Likely Democrat. Indeed, New Jersey’s results that year ended up being the closest the state has been this century; John Kerry only defeated George W. Bush by seven points statewide, 53%-46%.

The states that CPR rates as Toss Ups this year are Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, four highly competitive states which CPR considers likely to determine the outcome of the overall election – just as they did in 2020.

But while the presidential race in New Jersey may be a foregone conclusion, the Democratic margin will still matter downballot. If Biden does as well or better as he did in 2020, that puts a target on the back of Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), who represents a Biden-won district; if Biden does significantly worse, on the other hand, Kean is likely safe, and Democratic members of the delegation may be forced into closer races.