Unpredictable House schedule may have knock-on effects in Senate, gubernatorial campaigns

Last Tuesday, the New Jersey League of Municipalities kicked off its annual conference, a raucous, crowded event in Atlantic City that brings a colossal array of New Jersey elected officials and party leaders together to discuss politics and policy.

But New Jersey’s House members – several of whom are either actively running for higher office or plotting behind the scenes to do so – weren’t there for the conference’s first day. Instead, they were stuck in Washington D.C., voting on an emergency stopgap funding bill to prevent the government from shutting down.

As New Jersey’s contests for Senate in 2024 and governor in 2025 ramp up, that’s a dynamic that’s likely to continue. In a House of Representatives that’s more chaotic than ever, ambitious New Jersey Democrats will need to balance their efforts campaigning back home with a GOP-led House schedule that will throw constant wrenches in their plans.

The more time they spend running around the Capitol on Speaker Mike Johnson’s schedule, the less time they’ll have to build connections and reach out to voters in New Jersey. On the other hand, missing official House business could open them up to attacks from their opponents – and would mean neglecting the jobs that voters elected them to do.

The stakes are especially high right now for Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who’s running for the Senate seat currently held by indicted Senator Bob Menendez. The Democratic Senate primary is already in full swing, and every new crisis in Washington means more time away from the campaign trail.

Just over a week after Kim launched his Senate campaign in September, the House kicked out Speaker Kevin McCarthy and began an agonizing three-week process to choose his replacement. For Democrats like Kim, there wasn’t a whole lot of official House business to do as the Republican caucus tried to sort itself out, but they still needed to remain in Washington for days on end in case Republicans called a vote.

First Lady Tammy Murphy, who launched her Senate campaign last week, faces no similar limitations. Her role as a politically active First Lady means that she’s already criss-crossing the state for campaign events and policy announcements, and she can easily take the time for party events or press availabilities in the middle of the week without breaking a sweat.

The divide could become especially acute during county convention season, which will start with the Hunterdon Democratic convention in February. If major House votes come up at the same time as critical conventions between Kim and Murphy, Kim will have some very difficult choices to make.

But Kim, who had to win competitive House elections in 2018, 2020, and 2022, said that dealing with both a busy congressional workload and an intense campaign schedule is nothing new for him.

“I’ve built some of the biggest grassroots campaigns in New Jersey and won some of the hardest races while also navigating government shutdowns, a global pandemic, and multiple impeachments,” the congressman said. “It’s a reminder that New Jersey needs someone who is proven and battle tested to not only win this seat, but also someone who has the experience to deliver for our working people.”

If Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis) were to launch a campaign for the Republican Senate nomination, something that he’s said he’s seriously considering, he’d be similarly limited by the House’s schedule.

Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff), meanwhile, haven’t officially announced any plans for higher office yet, but both are considered likely to run for governor in 2025.

Like Kim, that means that they’ll sometimes have to choose between politics in New Jersey and policy in Washington. And they, too, have a declared opponent, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, who is based in New Jersey and will have much less difficulty going to any New Jersey-based events he needs to. 

Fulop – and other potential New Jersey-based candidates for governor like former State Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-West Deptford) or Newark Mayor Ras Baraka – is only a short drive away from most of the state and can largely set his own schedule. Sherrill and Gottheimer, on the other hand, are constrained by a three-hour train ride and a schedule laid out by Speaker Johnson over which they have no control.

Down in Virginia, the only other state that will hold a gubernatorial election in 2025, Rep. Abigail Spanberger has announced that she won’t seek re-election to the House in 2024 so as to focus entirely on her campaign for governor. For the critical yearlong stretch of the 2025 primary and general election, Spanberger (Sherrill’s roommate in D.C. and a native of Red Bank) won’t have any other job she needs to focus on.

But neither Gottheimer nor Sherrill is set to pursue a similar strategy, and both are likely to still be members of the House during the 2025 election. As that election grows closer, the dual pressures on Sherrill and Gottheimer will only increase.

Long story short: Congress is a full-time job, especially in the current House of Representatives, which can barely go a month without stirring up some new crisis. As they strive to leave the House behind entirely, Kim, Sherrill, and Gottheimer – and possibly Van Drew as well – will have to constantly take that into account.