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The 2020 general election in New Jersey will be conducted primarily through vote-by-mail ballots. (Photo: Chris Dorney.)

N.J. has almost twice as many Democrats returning mail-in ballots as Republicans so far

More Democrats casting voters than GOP in key congressional districts

By David Wildstein, October 23 2020 2:53 pm

Democrats are outpacing Republicans by a margin of nearly 2-1 in returning vote by mail ballots in New Jersey, according to analysis by the New Jersey Globe.

Registered Democrats make up 49% of the total ballots recorded as received so far, while voters registered as Republicans are 25%.  Unaffiliated voters make up 26% of the total numbers of mail-in ballots received.

Democrats are outpacing their own registration numbers.

Nearly four-in-ten voters statewide (39.3%) are Democrats, while Republicans are 22% and 37% are not affiliated with any political party.

In the state’s most competitive legislative districts, Democrats are returning ballots at a faster rate than the GOP – a trend that has continued for about two weeks.

The advantage for Democrats does not necessarily account for the federal election political leanings of unaffiliated voters, something that differs depending on the district.

In the 2nd district, where party-switcher Jeff Van Drew faces Democrat Amy Kennedy, Democrats have a 42%-32% edge on ballots returned.

In District 3, Democrats have 41%-32% lead in returned VBM ballots in a race where Democrat Andy Kim is seeking a second term against Republican David Richter.

And in the 7th district, where freshman congressman Tom Malinowski faces GOP Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr., Democrats are ahead 43%-31% on returned vote-by-mail ballots.

In the Morris County-based 25th district, where there are potentially competitive special elections for State Senate and Assembly, 43% of the VBM ballots already returned have come from Democrats and 33% from Republicans.

At the county level, Democratic returned ballots are outpacing Republicans everywhere but Cape May, Ocean, Sussex and Warren counties.

In two traditionally strong Republican counties, Morris and Monmouth, vote-by-mail ballots so far are coming in faster for Democrats than Republicans.  Both counties have more registered Republicans than Democrats.

In Morris, 41% of the returned and recorded ballots come from Democrats and 34% from Republicans.

The current pool of mail-in ballots in Monmouth County is comprised of 38% Democrats and 31% Republicans.

New Jersey voters have cast 2,270,180 mail-in ballots for the 2020 general election, as of 10 AM this morning.  The party affiliation numbers used in the Globe analysis are current but do not reflect all ballots marked as received by local election officials as of today.

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