Dems have voter registration edge in 30 of 40 legislative districts

After breaking Democrats’ one million-voter advantage last month, New Jersey Republicans continued making modest voter registration gains in April, according to the New Jersey Division of Elections’ May 1 report.

Republicans added 3,005 new voters in the month of April and are now sitting at 1,537,246 voters statewide, while Democrats added 2,234 and have 2,535,269 total voters. The state as a whole now has 6,537,786 voters, up by 6,481 from last month.

Overall, New Jersey’s voter registration is 38.8% Democratic, 23.5% Republican, 36.5% unaffiliated, with the remaining 1.2% being registered with one of the state’s seven official minor parties.

But despite their statewide growth, Republicans are still at a deep disadvantage when registration is broken down by legislative district. Democrats have a voter registration advantage in 30 of the state’s 40 legislative districts, and are in fact gaining ground in some important suburban areas.

Among those 30 districts are seven that currently have at least one Republican legislator: the 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 11th, 21st, 39th, and 40th. The 40th district is a new addition to the list, having only flipped to Democratic registration in March; it had 199 more Democrats than Republicans as of April.

Democrats also have the advantage in every district they control, with one exception. State Sen. Sam Thompson (D-Old Bridge), who switched parties earlier this year, represents a district where Republicans have a 9,000-voter advantage, but he’s not running for re-election and Democrats have no serious expectation of holding his seat.

The widespread Democratic advantage in voter registration doesn’t necessarily mean Democrats are on track to win big in this November’s legislative elections, however. New Jersey Republicans have won plenty of elections on unfavorable territory – including just two years ago in the 2021 red wave, when they flipped many Democratic-leaning legislative seats and nearly won the governor’s office

There are also more than two million unaffiliated voters up for grabs statewide, many of them located in close legislative districts. Unaffiliated voters make up the largest group of voters in 16 legislative districts, including nearly all of the districts that are considered highly competitive.