New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
Bob Menendez, who was arguably one of the most powerful politicians in Washington as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, began serving an 11-year sentence at a federal prison in Pennsylvania on Tuesday. His appeal is ongoing, as is his hope that President Trump will pardon him. What should elected officials in New Jersey be taking away from the Menendez saga?
Dan Bryan: I’ll do two. First, no one is above the law (looking your way, Mr. President). A corrupt politician may get away with their crimes for a while, but life always catches up with us, in one way or another. Senator Menendez’s crimes against his country were heinous. I don’t wish a fate like his on anyone (ok fine, maybe a few people), but it’s hard to say it isn’t just.
Second, glory fades. No matter who you are, no matter what important position you hold, it won’t last forever. The man who loomed so large over Hudson County as I began my career is now prisoner #67277-050.
It is unthinkable, and a warning sign to everyone lucky enough to hold a position of public trust. Remember it while you’re on your ascent, and maybe it’ll help you keep your head about you.
Alex Wilkes: Maybe instead of trading state secrets for a reclining chair, it would be wiser for our politicians to plan for their future by asking for, say, a home in a non-extradition country?
Joking aside, I’m not sure there is really anything to learn from the Bob Menendez saga. It still doesn’t seem real. It’s like the Temu version of a political scandal. He is probably one of the most colorful, complex characters our state will ever see, and yet, his downfall was a case of simple greed. He didn’t even need the comforts that he sought. I think it’s difficult to learn any kind of applicable lesson from such a deeply flawed human, to be honest.
This has been the first full week of the general election campaign between Jack Ciattarelli and Mikie Sherrill. Who won the week?
Alex: Jack, by a mile. Most importantly, he qualified for matching funds so fast I have whiplash, but HOLY COW watching that interview of Mikie being unable to name a single piece of legislation she would like to pass as Governor was just dreadful. You know it’s bad when someone of the opposing party can’t watch it without wanting to die. It makes it easier if you play it alongside the theme to Curb Your Enthusiasm.
Is she a quick study? I’m sure. But to be honest, when she was standing on that debate stage, I kept having this thought that she and Josh Gottheimer stuck out like sore thumbs—creatures of Washington, where everything is sunshine, rainbows, and unicorns, because as an individual member, you can pretty much get away with promising everything and blaming the system when you deliver nothing.
It was clear at the debates that her team had prepped her with some key terms to keep her afloat, and no one really directly challenged her (a complete mistake, by the way). But when stacked up against Sweeney, Baraka, and Fulop, it was like those guys were talking a different language. I might disagree with them, but they were engrossed in a true policy discussion that was really interesting to watch. It would’ve been really fascinating to listen to a debate between one of those candidates and Jack, whose bread and butter is policy.
It’s possible that since the primary was really decided by a few dudes getting together at the League, she’s become so attached to her own hype – that her background will win the race – that she’s forgotten to challenge herself or her own team. I can only hope it stays that way!
Dan: I’m old enough to remember the last time Mikie’s opponents clipped an off moment in an interview (which every politician has) and claimed it would tank her campaign. Last I checked, she won the primary by about 14 points. You’re gonna need something more than an awkward interview clip, Jack.
Of course I’m going to say Mikie Sherrill won the week, but I have a few reasons.
One, her performance at the NJBIA dinner turned heads. On a night that should have very much been Jack’s, Congresswoman Sherrill fought him to a draw. She was substantive, effective, and engaging. She showed many doubters in the room that she won’t cede any ground to her opponent. On the flip side, Jack looked like he took the speech for granted, rushing through his policy agenda seemingly without taking a breath.
Two, Jack Ciattarelli gave a disastrous interview to Brent Johnson, for his newsletter What Makes Jersey Run. When asked if there was any one thing he disagreed with the president on, Ciattarelli replied, “Right now, I do not.”
Nothing! No disagreements at all. He doesn’t even disagree with the President naming a 22 year old grocery clerk head of terrorism prevention. I don’t know what state Jack Ciattarelli thinks he’s running in, but subservient worshiping of anyone, especially Donald Trump, won’t get you far in New Jersey. Voters want to know you’re looking out for them, not far-right Republicans in Washington. As Bob Dylan said, you’ve gotta serve somebody, and Jack Ciattarelli has clearly decided who he’s gonna serve.
In the first legislative primary with no lines and office block ballots, several Democratic State Assembly primaries were extraordinarily close: 36 votes in the 2nd district and 97 votes in the 20th, where insurgent Ed Rodriguez won; a couple of hundred votes decided primaries in two Hudson County districts. Is this a predictor of what’s to come – that more competitive legislative primaries in non-competitive general election districts is on the horizon?
Dan: There’s no question. I said this a few weeks ago: we were promised more competitive primary elections without a line, and we got them. And to be clear, competition is a good thing.
Alex: Yes, the line disproportionately benefited the machine has done a nice job of keeping their boot on the necks of progressive candidates, so I think there is pent-up anger and frustration out there. The line kept the machine safe, but without it, it is susceptible to the natural forces that can take down any institution – age, changing political winds, new voters, lack of funding, etc.
Joey Fox wrote a great story this week about the fledgling race for Mikie Sherrill’s congressional seat, if she wins the governor’s race, and former Rep. Tom Malinowski’s likely candidacy if that happens. It takes a long time to raise money for a House campaign, so what are the best practices of balancing the necessity of getting an early start to the need to not be seen as jumping then gun?
Alex: Shouldn’t Tom Malinowski losing multiple elections where he lives after moving there from Washington – and then packing up to run in another district – show Democrats that Malinowski is for Malinowski, rather than the people he seeks to serve? Somebody better get this guy a job at MSNBC before he primaries Mikie when she loses to Jack.
Dan: I believe there is an excellent chance that Mikie Sherrill is elected our next Governor. So here’s what I’d tell anyone looking to run as her replacement in CD-11:
Fortune favors the bold. Move early, move fast. Lay the groundwork now, so that when the time comes, all you need to do is execute.
There will be a balance to strike, for sure. But shyness is not a virtue in New Jersey politics.
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February 7, 2025 -
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