Stomping Grounds: Menendez indictment, Resignations, Legislative Races, and the U.S. Senate Race

New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state.  Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation.  Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made.  They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.

New Jersey Globe: There are few events in politics more significant that the indictment of a three-term United States Senator, especially one where the allegations were as sensational as these.  Senator Menendez insists he’s innocent.  What’s your take on the charges?  

Dan Bryan: I agree with the Governor, the Speaker, the Senate President, the State Party Chair, and every relevant Democrat in New Jersey: the charges brought against Senator Menendez are shocking, and he should resign. Though the Senator deserves the presumption of innocence, he should focus on his legal defense and step aside to allow New Jersey to move forward.

The charges themselves are specific, disturbing, and far more layered than anyone could have imagined. The pictures of cash stuffed into jackets with “Senator Menendez” embroidered on them will go down in New Jersey political history. Most concerning, though, are the charges regarding military intelligence – if those prove to be true, they’d be the worst of the bunch.

It is a sad way for Senator Menendez’s career to end. I cut my political teeth in Hudson County, where he is revered as an effective politician that can fight just as hard for you as he can against you. I know that he delivered for New Jersey after Superstorm Sandy, helping Hoboken receive hundreds of millions of dollars to protect the city from future storm surges.

None of that excuses his alleged actions. He leaves behind a complicated legacy to say the least, and I’m sad to see his career end like this.

Alex Wilkes: There are few events in our line of work that require no spin, and this most recent indictment of Bob Menendez is one of them. Gold bars, cash in jackets? It sounds like a cartoon. At a time when trust in our institutions is low, events like these further erode the public’s faith in a system that is meant to protect and promote our best interests. As Dan mentioned, there’s also ongoing concern about how much our country’s national security has been compromised by his recklessness and his greed.

What bothers me the most is that Democrats spent an entire cycle downplaying his influence peddling during the last corruption trial. Forget the electoral consequences for a second, and consider how much this put our country and the integrity of our system at risk. Democrats completely circled the wagons around him, and we now know from the indictment that he turned around again within months to effectuate the same scheme. I know we are all in our partisan corners more than ever before, but this shows how imperative it is to call out bad behavior when we see it.

NJ Globe: There’s always a lot of talk about the presumption of innocence, but it seems there was a rush to judgment from folks on both sides of the aisle that Senator Menendez should resign.  He says he’s not going anywhere.  Is this just theatrics, or do you think this will help convince the Senator to quit?

Alex: Well, let’s be clear: we’re all entitled to a presumption of innocence under the law, but we’re not entitled to seats in elected office. This kind of thinking is what led Bob Menendez to believe he could use his Senate seat as his personal cash cow.

This entitlement is also what led to the “resignation theater” you are describing. Because Menendez felt that the seat belonged to him — and then ultimately his son — his legal handicap became a once-in-a-generation scramble to be first in line to grab the seat. Everyone has a motive. For Andy Kim, just put his “bold and brave” resignation statement right along his suit in the Smithsonian for being a self-serving, typical politician.

Dan: I don’t think calling on the Senator to resign is “theatrics,” regardless of what he does. It is incredibly important for our elected officials to let New Jersey know that what Senator Menendez is accused of is unacceptable and beyond the pale. They need to assure voters that yes, I know these charges are infuriating, and I am just as disgusted as you are.

NJ Globe: Democrats in all the closely-watched legislative races wasted no time in telling Senator Menendez to resign, but that didn’t make a whole lot of news and I get the impression there’s a tree falling in the woods metaphor coming.  Does this inoculate Democrats, or will voters take the allegations against a Democratic U.S. Senator out on Democratic candidates in an election year where lots of issues might be breaking the way of the Republicans?

Dan: I know it will pain Alex to admit this, but I don’t think the indictment against Senator Menendez will affect Democrats running this November as much as Republicans are hoping, especially due to the swift, decisive statements so many of them have released. Democrats have run smart campaigns focused on the core issues including affordability, healthcare, gun safety, and a woman’s right to choose, and they are still on pace to

The best Republicans can hope for is dampened enthusiasm among Democratic voters, but the stakes of this election are far too high to allow for that. New Jersey knows that issues like a woman’s right to choose, gun safety, affordability, and a financially stable State House are on the line this November. Republicans have still refused to put forward any plan of substance or value, choosing instead to engage in culture wars and . They love to say what they’re against, but they have a much harder time saying what they’re for.

And let’s remember this: in just a few days, Republicans will almost certainly shut down the federal government for absolutely no reason. Every time the federal government shuts down it’s because Republicans can’t get their act together in Washington, and every time, it hurts them. If I’m a Republican running for office in New Jersey, I’d be very worried about representing the party that is shutting down the government. National Republican dysfunction will be the bigger issue this November, by far.

New Jersey voters have rejected Republican extremism time and time again, and this November, they’ll do it again. Until the State GOP puts forward a real, viable plan that appeals to middle class voters, they will continue to founder.

Alex: First, Dan greatly underestimates my pain threshold as a woman who has given birth twice, a Philadelphia sports fan, and a constituent of Phil Murphy.

Second, with respect to our upcoming legislative races, I think what this indictment does (particularly because it’s so clear and easy to understand) is that it exacerbates existing negative feelings about the party in power. Before this, we knew that Phil Murphy’s numbers were on the decline here and Joe Biden’s were even worse. The Democrats have nowhere to go here: they rule completely over this one-party circus and Bob Menendez has turned out to be the biggest clown of them all.

NJ Globe: Suddenly there’s a race for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination, especially with Senator Menendez saying he’ll run for re-election.  Congressman Andy Kim entered the race the day after the indictment and now there’s speculation that First Lady Tammy Murphy might run.  Where do you see this contest going — and can Bob Menendez win a Democratic primary?

Alex: I’m grabbing the popcorn because we’re about to watch an epic intraparty war. I don’t believe Senator Menendez can win reelection, but he’s not going to go down without a fight, and if his crazed press conference following his 2017 mistrial is any indication, he will burn down anyone who gets in his way. Especially now, he has nothing to lose.

It will also be fun to watch Democrats, who have mythologized Andy Kim in the most absurd ways, now have to contend with the Governor’s wife wanting to step right in front of him in line. Never mind the blatant nepotism in a seat that has been plagued by ethical concerns, let’s now elevate a woman who thought it was too gross for her State Trooper protective detail to breastfeed in her home and manages a soccer team that lets its players live in squalor. I am here for it ALL.

Dan: I’ll take the second question first – no, Senator Menendez cannot win reelection. I hope he comes to his senses and decides not to run for reelection, even if he serves out the rest of his term. I’m not sure he wants to end his career finishing dead last in a primary.

As far as the other possible candidates, I am very obviously not an objective source here. And I will state this up front: I am a fan of Congressman Kim, and I’ve spent the last five years rooting for his success in CD3. His viral moment after January 6th, stopping to help clean the Capital after the insurrection, was one of the only bright spots in a very, very dark period for our country.

But if First Lady Tammy Murphy decides to run, she would be an incredibly exciting candidate for Democrats in-state and beyond. Tammy is a candidate that would check every box: she has the policy chops, having focused heavily on issues like maternal and infant mortality and climate change over the past six years. She has the profile – not only is she well-known and well-liked among New Jersey Democrats, she would make history as New Jersey’s first female Senator. And she passes the viability test – she is one of the best fundraisers in state history, and she knows what it takes to run and win tough statewide elections in New Jersey.

So if Tammy decides to run, she would make a phenomenal candidate. But regardless of who it is, New Jersey will put forward a strong Democratic nominee to succeed Senator Menendez in Washington and continue fighting for New Jersey values.