The race is on – sort of – for Mikie Sherrill’s House seat

For the next five months, ambitious politicians in New Jersey’s 11th congressional district will be in a strange sort of limbo.

Their local congresswoman, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), is now the Democratic nominee for governor, meaning that there could be a special election for Congress coming up in the near future. If Sherrill wins the gubernatorial race this fall, candidates from both parties looking to succeed her will have an extremely short runway to run for her seat.

But if Sherrill doesn’t win, and if she decides to run for another term in the House in 2026, then any discussions of her successor will instantly become moot. With Democrats single-mindedly focused on electing Sherrill and a Democratic State Assembly from now through November, few party leaders want the distraction of a divisive primary raging through the fall for a special election that may not even end up existing.

The timing of a hypothetical special election, too, remains unclear thanks to legislation pending in the state legislature. Current state law would likely result in a special general election in the late spring or early summer, but one bill would push that schedule up by several months, giving prospective candidates even less time win over voters.

It all adds up to a situation where those interested in succeeding Sherrill need to start preparing their campaigns now – but they have to do so quietly and carefully.

“​​It’d be a gross mistake to announce before there’s a reason to announce,” said Essex County Democratic Chairman LeRoy Jones, a close Sherrill ally who also leads the state Democratic Party. “You don’t want to end up looking silly.”

The candidates

When Sherrill herself launched her first campaign for Congress in 2017, she did so as a total political novice, running on the strength of her military background and fundraising prowess rather than on any past electoral experience.

But she was able to do that in part because the 11th district was, at the time, a highly competitive GOP-held seat; now that the district is far bluer and has more local party infrastructure in place, Democrats are more likely to turn to an established name to succeed her. And because of the timing of a special election, any elected official who runs on either side would not have to give up their seats to do so, meaning that they get a free shot at Congress with little downside.

The list of potential Democratic candidates to succeed her begins with a handful of local and state politicians who have made their ambitions clear over the years: Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill (D-Montclair); Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett (D-Wayne), who ran for the same seat in 2017 but ultimately deferred to Sherrill; Assemblywoman Rosy Bagolie (D-Livingston); and South Orange Mayor Sheena Collum, who was the running mate of Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, one of Sherrill’s opponents, in last week’s gubernatorial primary.

Two Democrats serving in local office in Morris County, Chatham Borough Councilman Justin Strickland and Morris Township Committeeman Jeff Grayzel, have both said publicly that they’re thinking about running. (Strickland even filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission for a potential run last year.)

One big wild card is former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Ringoes), now the chairman of the Hunterdon County Democrats. Malinowski represented the neighboring 7th congressional district for four years and does not live particularly close to the current boundaries of the 11th district, but he has some longstanding ties in the district and would instantly have a national profile and fundraising base unmatched by any other candidate if he were to run.

A number of other state lawmakers live in the district, among them Assemblywoman Alixon Collazos-Gill (D-Montclair), Assemblyman Mike Venezia (D-Bloomfield), Assemblywoman Carmen Morales (D-Belleville), and outgoing Assemblywoman Garnet Hall (D-Maplewood), though some or all of them may have no interest in a congressional campaign; State Sen. John McKeon (D-West Orange) lives just outside the district. (Collazos-Gill is Brendan Gill’s wife, so if he takes steps towards a campaign, she likely won’t be running.) Some notable county elected officials like Essex County Clerk Chris Durkin are also 11th district residents.

And it’s possible that someone with a background in national, rather than state or local, politics could make waves (much like Malinowski himself did in the 2018 race for the 7th district). One such possibility is Jack Miller, the former communications director at the U.S. Office of Personnel Management under Joe Biden, who was raised in Morristown and lives in Montclair; other Biden and Obama administration alums likely live in the largely wealthy, suburban district as well.

Two big names, former interim U.S. Senator George Helmy and Lieutenant Gov. Tahesha Way, live in or extremely near to the district as well. But there’s no chance Helmy will want to make his return to Washington as a freshman House member, and Way hasn’t shown much obvious interest in embarking on a new chapter in her electoral career.

If Attorney General Matt Platkin, a Montclair resident, were to decide to enter electoral politics, he could upend the 11th district campaign thanks to his national profile battling the Trump administration, but that’s a big if.

All told, it’s a field of tangled loyalties that will be tough for Democrats to sift through – especially since any campaigning will have to happen behind-the-scenes for the next few months.

On the Republican side, there are plenty of talented politicians who live in the 11th district, though the bigger challenge may be convincing them to consider running at all. The district has grown blue enough – it voted for Kamala Harris last year by 9 points and re-elected Sherrill by 15 – that Republicans will be underdogs in any potential special election, but Morris County GOP Chairwoman Laura Ali said that there’s lots of enthusiasm in her party to flip the seat.

“If there is a special election, I can tell you that there are at least 15 people who have already approached me who would like to be the Republican nominee for that special election,” Ali said. “So we will not be short of good candidates to put their hat in the ring.”

Ali declined to name any of those candidates, but several local Republicans have run for the 11th district in the past: Assemblyman Jay Webber was the party’s nominee against Sherrill in 2018, Morris County Commissioner Tayfun Selen (R-Chatham) ran in 2022 but lost in the primary, and Assemblywoman Aura Dunn (R-Mendham) came very close to launching a campaign that same year but decided against it. Outspoken Assemblyman Brian Bergen (R-Denville) and other GOP state legislators may be in the mix, too.

Like Democrats, interested Republicans have a bit of a balancing act to pull off, since it’s their fervent hope that Jack Ciattarelli wins this year’s gubernatorial race, thus negating any need for a special election to replace Sherrill. As Ali pointed out, however, any Republican who might want to run in a special election would also have to be prepared to run in the 2026 general election for the same seat, against either Sherrill or whoever Democrats nominate to replace her.

“If you’re interested in the special election, if that comes to be, you also have to be just as interested in running as if there is no special election,” Ali said. “You have to start campaigning now regardless, because the timing isn’t going to be that different.”

The timeline

As state law currently stands, the process to replace Sherrill if she wins would be a slow and arduous one. After Sherrill is sworn in as governor, she could then immediately call a writ of special election, with the earliest primary being between March 31 and April 6 and the earliest general being between June 3 and June 9; that would leave her seat vacant for at least five months, and the timing of the general election would also conflict with the 2026 primary elections in potentially chaotic ways.

Under a bill proposed by State Sen. Andrew Zwicker (D-South Brunswick), however, that timeframe could be made substantially tighter. Zwicker said that his bill would allow outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy to call a special election once Sherrill’s victory has been certified, rather than having to wait until she’s sworn in, which would likely allow the special primary to be held in February and the general to be held in April.

The bill also includes provisions aimed at streamlining special elections under other circumstances – circumstances that New Jersey experienced twice last year following the deaths of two sitting House members.

Zwicker recently met with county clerks to clean up and finalize the bill’s language, with a new version set to come out soon (the version now on the New Jersey Legislature’s website is more than a year old). As for when it might pass, Zwicker said it might be tough to push it through before the summer recess begins at the end of June, but at a minimum he said legislators should be able to get it done when they come back in the fall.

“At this point, the bill’s ready to go,” he said. “I don’t have a firm commitment anywhere, but I’ve gotten nothing but positive support from leadership, other members, et cetera. I think everyone sees that this is an important thing to do.”

Waiting until the fall to pass such a bill, though, could get dicey, since the legislature isn’t scheduled to return until after the November election. Passing the bill so late, potentially after Sherrill has already won the election, might be more at risk of being challenged in court or causing havoc for county clerks’ offices who have to adjust for new special election laws at the last minute.

Even if the bill doesn’t pass, Sherrill could hypothetically resign as soon as she’s elected governor and kickstart the special election process early that way instead. She said last month that it will “be a discussion with [House Democratic leader] Hakeem Jeffries” to determine when is best for her to leave her House seat behind.

Regardless, any successful effort to move the special election timeline forward would mean that 11th district voters won’t have to go nearly as long without representation, and that candidates won’t have nearly as long to win their votes.

The campaign

No matter what happens with Zwicker’s bill, the next few months will be awkward for the Democrats vying to succeed Sherrill.

Among the things they can’t do, or at least will be publicly discouraged from doing: announce campaigns, get endorsements, file campaign paperwork, or raise money, the latter of which means that even basic campaign necessities like lawn signs or websites might be impossible. But anyone who does no preparation for a potential special election in the coming months is liable to be left behind if Sherrill wins.

That could provide an advantage for candidates with established, independent brands like Malinowski; the former congressman was a prolific fundraiser during his two terms in Congress, and could start a congressional campaign from scratch in a way that no one else could. (He also represented a handful of towns like Dover and Millburn that are now in the 11th district, and is teaching at Seton Hall in South Orange this fall.)

It also severely disadvantages any political outsiders considering campaigns – outsiders like Sherrill was in 2018, when she had an entire year to fundraise and build up support within the party, a luxury that no candidates hoping to take her seat will have. The one exception is if a self-funder enters the race and is able to put themselves in contention via their own money.

Whoever is nominated, the special election might take on national import far beyond the 11th district’s boundaries, as many past congressional special elections have. National political observers eager for bellwethers ahead of the 2026 midterms may look to the 11th district to see how voters are reacting to the second Donald Trump presidency – and huge amounts of national money could flow in for both the primary and general elections.

In preparation for that potential onslaught, discussions about the race within the district’s three county Democratic organizations (Essex, Morris, and Passaic) will have to start now. Democrats aren’t especially worried about losing the seat to a Republican, but they still want to make sure they put their best foot forward with whoever they nominate.

And their best foot could look different to different party leaders. Sherrill, a Montclair resident, is beloved by Morris County Democrats, but the county party may want to make a play to elect one of their own to the seat if Sherrill departs; then again, there are no Democratic elected officials in Morris County above the local level, while Essex County is chock-full of them. (In the 2024 primary, Essex made up around half of the 11th district’s vote, Morris was 40%, and Passaic was 10%.)

Given the results in last week’s state-level primaries, party endorsements don’t necessarily matter as much now that the county line is gone, though special primaries never had lines to begin with. It will be up to each party organization’s own work ethic to make their endorsements count – if they decide to endorse at all, which is not necessarily a given if lots of well-known and well-liked politicians run.

There is one endorsement that likely would matter a great deal: Sherrill’s. The congresswoman said last month that she’s had a number of prospective candidates approach her about running, and if she were to take sides in the race, that could instantly make her preferred choice a frontrunner.

Sherrill’s own focus through November, though, will have to be on winning the governor’s race, which is far from a sure thing in a state where no Democrat has succeeded another two-term Democratic governor since 1961. And if she loses, her choice to remain in Congress amid her gubernatorial campaign means that she’ll still have a seat in Washington to return to, with no need for anyone to replace her.

Asked whether she does indeed plan on running for another term in 2026 if she doesn’t win the governorship, Sherrill hedged.

“I was elected to represent New Jersey’s 11th district, I’ve been very effective delivering for families, and I intend to continue serving the people through this election,” she said.

This story was updated at 3:03 p.m. with a correction: State Sen. John McKeon’s home of West Orange is no longer in the 11th district. It was updated again at 8:32 p.m. to add Jack Miller as a possible Democratic candidate.