Stomping Grounds: Governor’s race, Elon Musk, and self-inflicted wounds

New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.

We’re less than two weeks away from Election Day and the selection of two major party nominees to run for governor in the November general election, so let’s do a check-in.  How are you handicapping the race as it stands right now? 

Alex Wilkes: Until the last vote is cast (or when the Bergen County Clerk deigns to start counting them), I never like to think or say anything is done and dusted. It’s a bad attitude for campaigns – both for the leaders and the underdogs. Also, it’s just more interesting!

On the Republican side, I think the President’s big endorsement for Jack Ciattarelli obviously looms large over the race — but something I’ve been stressing all along is that an endorsement (even as one as coveted as Trump’s) would most likely not have been able to pull an empty campaign across the finish line. By “empty,” I don’t mean the enthusiasm and activism of the Spadea fans, but rather I mean the basics of a campaign that no one gets to skirt. There’s no modern “hack” to do an end-run around major dollar fundraising and the deployment of paid media. They’re two of the most loathed and vilified parts of the operation, so it’s easy for candidates branding themselves as “outsiders” to claim they’re running a different kind of campaign by ignoring them. That’s kind of like saying you’re building a different kind of house—but it’s one with no walls or floors. Jack built and financed an operation early, demonstrating competency that a more politically-savvy Trump political operation in its second term could see and measure. There is no secret plot or payoff: it’s really just that. And, look, Republican activists and supporters who feel disappointed should be on alert now for candidates who may stir great emotion in the people, but have major chunks of their operation missing. Those candidates owe it to their supporters to give it their all, and just like a lot of things in life, that means doing things you don’t want to do.

On the Democratic side, I think it’s much more fluid. More on that below.

Dan Bryan: By any traditional metric, Jack Ciattarelli and Mikie Sherrill are the favorites in their respective races. But while Ciattarelli has the nomination sewn up, there’s still a long way to go to win the Democratic nomination.

Jack Ciattarelli was probably going to win without Donald Trump’s endorsement. With it, he takes any doubt out of June 10th’s result. He still has plenty of hurdles ahead, but they’ll start in the general election.

Mikie Sherrill has held a lead in every primary poll released over the past year – quite an accomplishment in a cycle with six real campaigns, all spending eight figures to get their message out. She’s built a broad coalition of suburban women, senior citizens, progressives, activists, and traditional political organizations.

But there’s one thing we know from the last decade in politics: things don’t always go as planned, and traditional metrics don’t always hold up. Sherrill is the favorite heading into election day, but this race is far from over.

If there’s an upset in the making in the governor’s race, what will it be — and how will it happen?

Dan: Ras Baraka has run a strong second in most polls for over a year. He has broad appeal, from progressives to voters of color. He’s a guy that can command any room he’s in. I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned heads with a stronger than expected finish on June 10th.

Alex: I keep telling Dan, take it from someone who lived through the political jungle of Republican politics from 2008-2024: I think that an angry and unhappy Democratic base makes this race wildly combustible. Democrats keep telling me I’m wrong, that even without the line, people like Brian Stack has enough in turkey insurance to get Mikie Bot across the finish line in key, densely-populated areas, but I remain skeptical. For whatever this one Republican’s opinion is worth, here’s why I think Steve Fulop could pull an inside straight in final two weeks.

First of all, Fulop has already shown an ability to upend the Hudson County machine even when there was a line. I don’t pretend to know the ins-and-outs of that or the mitigating factors that may have helped him, but what I do know from our side is that if it can be done once, it can be done again by that same candidate running an anti-establishment campaign.

Second, Fulop doesn’t need to get to 50+1 — he just needs to do marginally better than the guy or gal behind him in this fractionalized race. Importantly, a multi-candidate primary with rapidly changing dynamics also makes it a difficult race to poll, leaving campaigns to make some educated guesses in a race where there’s no room for error.

Let’s talk about some potential vote drains on Mikie’s road to a plurality. Sweeney will capture South Jersey, but not the big population centers up north, so I think you can set him aside (but not South Jersey – I love you long time, my fellow Phillies and Iggles fans). I also think the same is true for Ras Baraka, who managed to capture the true heart of the base, but failed to capitalize on his high-profile arrest and bring the fire to the last debate. His home base of Newark also has a bad track record of turning out in primary elections.

I think you’ll see Josh Gottheimer steal away – if not win outright – huge chunks of Bergen County. I think he also has a real possibility of cutting into other counties with big Jewish population centers for his high-profile defense of Israel. Remember: Mikie called for a ceasefire remarkably early following the October 7th massacre. It’s hard to imagine how that doesn’t hurt.

Fulop’s the hometown guy in Hudson County, and I think you would have to factor in him, as mayor of the county’s largest city, tearing into at least some of the machine’s influence.

Third, Fulop was smart in running down-ballot challengers. The line has protected some truly dumb machine stooges, who this year have had to wake up, wipe the drool off their faces, and actually fight for themselves. Fulop’s candidates are known and credible locally, creating an incentive to support a package deal. If my neighbors are any indication, that’s capturing the support of some of Mikie’s suburban moms.

Fourth, I know that Steve Fulop is a Marine – but that’s about the fourth or fifth thing that comes to mind when I think about him. I may disagree with him, but I immediately think about his vigorous support for congestion pricing, his opposition to the turnpike widening project, etc. All I know about Mikie Sherrill is that she was a Navy helicopter pilot — and God bless her for that, I really mean it. But the hard truth is that she is completely bereft of any original thoughts and the personality needed to sell them in a tenacious state like New Jersey. I’m going to stop adding this disclaimer at some point, but, again, it’s not a gender thing. If Steve Fulop got up on the debate stage, spoke with a flat affect and parroted poll-tested lines from a policy session, I would say the same thing.

Finally—and I am willing to concede I could be totally wrong—but you have a base that is pissed and wants a knife-fighter. If they feel like the establishment is shoving another Kamala Harris down their throats, you can’t count on them to fall in line. In fact, they might do exactly the opposite as you tell them to do, particularly when party heavyweights were so blunt about choosing Mikie only for her gender and background (essentially, “electability”).

In the final two weeks of a campaign, that kind of blowback could push Fulop right over the finish line, leaving Mikie Sherrill with all the resources in the world, but without the time to spend it to truly go negative. If there’s any opportunity for an upset, Fulop has certainly caught fire at the right time.

Elon Musk announced this week that he’s leaving Washington, ending a stint of a little more than four months. Musk and DOGE have been an issue in the gubernatorial primary.   What, if anything, will his departure mean for New Jersey politics?  

Alex: Maybe that his departure from the news cycle means that the related attack lines against Mikie Sherrill lose some of their punch.

But a big thank you to Elon Musk. In four months, he exposed the game Washington has been running on taxpayers for decades. He took on conventional wisdom, tipped over sacred cows, and remained unapologetic about all of it — even as violent, George Soros-funded protests threatened his businesses and customers. I hope the DOGE team continues to expose the waste, fraud, and abuse because now we know that the people who attack that level of transparency are complicit in what’s protected by the silence.

Ad astra per aspera, Elon.

Dan: It’s funny to see New Jersey Republicans talking about wanting a New Jersey DOGE, as if Elon’s efforts in DC were popular or effective.

To be clear: everyone should want leaner, more efficient, more effective government. But that has nothing to do with the DOGE disaster Elon’s team just submitted our federal government to. Their cuts were indiscriminate and harmful, and in the long run they’ll cost us more than they saved. Recent polling suggests most Americans saw right through it.

Unsurprisingly, Elon was just ushered unceremoniously back into the private sector. Let’s hope he didn’t leave with the incredible amount of information he and his team had access to.

Michael Aron used to say that New Jersey is a state that never disappoints you.  Here are three stories from this week: Washington Township Councilman Richard Bennett is facing criminal charges for mailing harassing, anonymous letters to school board members; he mailed them from the post office and was captured on surveillance video buying the stamps; an Assembly candidate from South Jersey, Rebecca Holloway, was selling photos online of her feet to people with a foot fetish — no illegal — and now, it seems, was also selling some pornographic videos; and Assemblywoman Garnet Hall took free office space from the landlord of her taxpayer-funded legislative office — something that violates the legislature’s rules.  So my question is this: how come there are so many people who run for office without regard to getting caught?  

Dan: I think the lack of a strong in-state media presence has left people totally unable to handle media attention, both before they get in trouble and afterward.

In the past, every decision a candidate or elected official made would be subject to media scrutiny, and they knew it. Now, plenty never interact with the press at all, leaving them totally unprepared for questions that may come.

The media presence in New Jersey is weaker than it has been in the past, but it’s still here, and there are many quality journalists that can still be effective. Elected officials and candidates need to think ahead about their decisions, and whether they’d be defensible if the press starts to ask questions.

And thankfully, it all means good job security for me and Alex.

Alex: We have some true public servants out there, but if we’re being honest, our line of work attracts an unbelievable number of complete sociopaths and people with other antisocial personality disorders who initially present as very charming, smart, and generous people. Those labels get thrown around casually these days, but I’m talking like DSM-definable, truly scary people. The good news is that, as evidenced above, they can only hide for so long.