Trump approvals at 37%-55% in N.J.

President Donald Trump’s approval rating is 18 points underwater among New Jersey likely voters, according to Thursday’s numbers from the latest Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. 

Dan Cassino, the executive director of the poll, said Trump’s approval ratings in New Jersey — 37% approve and 55% disapprove — are in line with national polls.

“Trump’s approval has been low nationally, and he isn’t any more popular in New Jersey than anywhere else,” Cassino said. “If Republicans want to make a play for the state, the administration’s immigration policies, or at least how they’re being enforced, are going to be a problem.”

Thursday’s release is the third set of numbers stemming from the FDU poll conducted earlier this month. On Tuesday, the poll showed Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 8 points in the race for governor. On Wednesday, a batch of data showed 27% of voters in the state approve of the new GOP budget bill.

Trump’s approval breaks down largely along partisan lines. Among Democrats, he is unsurprisingly down 5%-92%; among Republicans, Trump’s approval is 88%-10%. Among independents, Trump is underwater 28%-56%. The release noted the approval rating is “almost identical” to the 29% approval Trump received from independents in the Gallup poll.

Trump holds a major presence in the race to replace term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy. Sherrill has accused the GOP former assemblyman of cozying up to Trump, especially in the wake of the president’s endorsement of Ciattarelli.

“Last year’s Presidential election was much closer than anyone was expecting in New Jersey,” Cassino said. “But if Trump had the opportunity to turn that into lasting support in the state, it seems to be gone now.”

The poll also included questions about the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement. About 55% of respondents said the Trump administration is doing “too much” to deport undocumented immigrants, while 10% said they are doing “too little” and 34% said “about the right amount.”

“A lot of what we’re seeing on immigration is thermostatic public opinion,” Cassino said. “When policy swings one way, voters tend to go to the other, so being tough on immigration was always likely to lead to voters saying that you’re going too far.”

The poll found 28% of voters are very or somewhat worried that they, a family member, or a close friend will be deported. That number goes up to 50% among Hispanic respondents.

“We haven’t seen the sort of large-scale immigration raids in New Jersey that have happened in California, but that doesn’t mean people aren’t scared,” Cassino said. “In a state with so many immigrants, those policies hit harder here than in other states.”

The FDU poll surveyed 806 New Jersey likely voters between July 17 and 23 with a margin of error of +/- 3.4%.