Poll finds Ciattarelli with advantage in favorables, name recognition

A poll of registered Republicans in the Garden State found former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli leading three other Republican gubernatorial candidates in name recognition and favorability. 

A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll found Ciattarelli, who won the GOP nomination for governor in 2021 before narrowly losing to Gov. Phil Murphy, with a +24% net rating (39% favorable-15% unfavorable) from the 430 Republicans surveyed.

The three other candidates polled—former radio host Bill Spadea, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Westfield), and former state Sen. Ed Durr—had lower favorability ratings, but also lower name recognition, and thus more room to catch up. (Other candidates, including former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac and former Burlington Township Mayor Jim Fazzone, were not tested.)

Durr’s net favorables sat at +14% (21%-7%), Spadea’s were at +12% (22%-10%), and Bramnick’s were at +10% (18%-8%).

Like a poll of the Democratic field that came out yesterday, the poll did not ask respondents who they would vote for; questions were limited to name ID and favorability.

“The fact that Ciattarelli has run before means that voters know who he is, but he also has much higher unfavorables than the other Republicans in the race,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of government and politics at FDU and the executive director of the poll. “He’s currently in the strongest position, but these numbers show how tenuous that advantage is.”

Ciattarelli holds a major edge in name recognition, with 78% of respondents saying they’ve heard of the former legislator. Spadea’s name ID came in at 54%, Bramnick’s at 43%, and Durr’s at 41%.

“The large number of Republicans who don’t have an opinion about Spadea means that he has room to grow his support,” Cassino said in the release. “But to do that, he’ll have to break through in media coverage, something that’s proving hard for everyone in the race.”

Cassino said Ciattarelli’s net favorables were stronger than the other candidates among self-described conservatives and MAGA voters, but among moderates, Spadea and Durr closed the gap. Somewhat counterintuitively, Bramnick, who presents himself as a moderate alternative, lagged behind in all categories, including with moderates.

“Bramnick has been banking on a revival of the moderate lane in the Party, but it doesn’t seem to be getting him anywhere yet,” Cassino said. “It’s not clear if there are enough moderates left in the Party to balance out the growing number of MAGA supporters.”

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, conducted by Braun Research, surveyed 1,476 registered voters between Feb. 23 and Feb. 28 with a margin of error of +/- 3.8%. The poll used a subsample of 430 Republicans for questions about the Republican gubernatorial primary.